Bitcoin has just gone through a 7% correction, but on-chain data and liquidity show positive signs of a new recovery phase, with expectations that the price could hit $200,000 in Q4.
The most recent correction process is seen as a 'technical pause', as the stablecoin cash flow and institutional recovery reinforce the scenario of Bitcoin's return to a bullish trend in the near future.
MAIN CONTENT
Bitcoin corrected by 7% but maintained a medium-term bullish structure, with strong accumulation from holders and stablecoin cash flow.
Stablecoin reserves on Binance reached a high, indicating that large amounts of money are waiting for an opportunity to enter the Bitcoin market.
Q4 is predicted to be the next period of strong growth, with a Bitcoin price target of up to $200,000.
Bitcoin just went through a 7% correction—what is really happening?
Bitcoin dropped from the ATH level of $123,400 to $114,000 after the market recorded capital withdrawals of up to $10 billion, yet on-chain data has not confirmed a long-term trend reversal.
Bitcoin holders did not panic during this drop, as evidenced by the absence of large capital withdrawals from the market.
Ali Martinez, Chain Data Analyst, 2025, X.com/ali_charts
Instead of a collapse, indicators show strong buying accumulation near the bottom, referred to as a 'bullish re-accumulation' model. This is when the market absorbs all selling pressure and prepares for the next upward phase.
Data from Swissblock shows that large capital (smart money) began to increase buying positions when Bitcoin dropped near $112,300. This explains why there has been no flight, but rather, the market is accumulating for a new explosive phase.
What is behind the $10 billion capital correction?
The price drop from $123,400 to $114,000 occurred at the same time as capital withdrawals from the cryptocurrency market reached $10 billion, primarily due to technical factors and the psychology of taking profits after Bitcoin reached a new peak.
According to data from Cryptoquant and other on-chain indicators, the biggest factor is the 'shaking out' effect of leveraged positions—a natural phenomenon when the market hits historical highs, forcing leveraged positions to liquidate.
As a result, strong liquidation caused a deep price correction, while also being a test for the sustainability of the medium to long-term growth trend.
How has Bitcoin reacted to capital pressure and the correction event?
Although overall capital decreased by $10 billion, data from Swissblock indicates that momentum indicators have shifted to a positive short-term trend before Bitcoin reached a low around $112,300.
This indicates significant buying pressure (typically from whales or institutional investors) entering when prices drop sharply—reflecting confidence in the long-term bullish outlook and the potential for prices to continue rising.
Moreover, the level of panic selling is almost non-existent: the amount of Bitcoin withdrawn from cold wallets/exchanges has not spiked, an important sign that holders still believe in the prevailing bullish trend.
The momentum index turning positive before the bottom indicates that sharks are starting to accumulate, preparing for a new recovery phase of Bitcoin.
Swissblock Analytics, On-chain data report, 08/2025, X.com/swissblock__
How does the strong increase in Binance's stablecoin reserves affect Bitcoin?
The stablecoin balance (ERC20) on Binance has continuously maintained above $32.3 billion, close to local peak levels—a significant indicator of the potential for new capital inflows into the market.
The higher the stablecoin surplus waiting to be invested, the stronger the likelihood that large capital is ready to buy Bitcoin or large-cap Tokens.
Cryptoquant Report, 2025, cryptoquant.com/insights
Experience shows that whenever stablecoin reserves on exchanges reach peaks, large-scale price acceleration events often occur as this capital transfers into Bitcoin and top assets.
Additionally, the total volume of stablecoins reflects the willingness of whales and institutions to 'enter the market'. When the market establishes a short-term bullish structure, this stablecoin will be pumped in, pushing Bitcoin's price into a new breakout cycle.
Why do whales and institutional cash flow seem to be 'waiting'?
On-chain data indicates that despite the short-term correction, the market capitalization of stablecoins did not decrease and even increased slightly. This reflects that whales are still maintaining an observational stance, not rushing to invest, waiting for clearer confirmation signals before buying Bitcoin.
Analysts indicate that large institutions tend to be cautious during deep corrections, only deploying capital when the bullish structure is solidified, minimizing the risk of being 'liquidated' at the bottom.
When these sidelined capital flows return, the market often experiences a sudden and strong shift, pushing prices to new ATH levels in a short time.
Bitcoin's price structure after correction: What is the main scenario driving the market?
After testing the support area around $110,000, Bitcoin quickly recovered, regaining its short-term bullish structure and maintaining the price discovery cycle—an indicator that the bullish outlook remains intact.
Bitcoin's price discovery cycle is only 'extended', not broken. This provides momentum for the hope that prices still have strong expansion potential.
Swissblock Analytics, X.com/swissblock__, 2025
Sidelined cash flow not only helps Bitcoin price hold steady but also lays the foundation for the next upward wave, especially when macroeconomic factors and the economic cycle gradually shift from caution to recovery.
Technical indicators also agree: significant price volatility accompanied by high stablecoin volume and whale participation creates a synergistic momentum, making the bullish trend clearer and stronger.
Indicator Decline Phase Recovery Phase Stablecoin Reserves Above $32.3 billion (high) Maintain recovery phase Bitcoin Withdrawal Volume Not spiking Holders maintain positions Market Capitalization Decreased by $10 billion Cash flow begins to stabilize Technical Momentum Shifts positively near the bottom Recovery function strengthens
Why is Q4 always the 'golden' time for Bitcoin?
Bitcoin's market tradition shows that Q4 is the strongest annual bullish cycle, with institutional cash flows and positive psychological effects driving prices up.
The report shows that capital inflows into the market remained stable at $75 billion, while Bitcoin and Ethereum positions increased above $67 billion—indicating stability and positivity rather than a flight phenomenon.
The main factors maintaining the upward momentum include: the return of large financial institutions, cash flow from ETF funds, accumulation demand from corporate treasuries, and the overall recovery in the DeFi market.
Q4 is always a strong growth phase as financial institutions restructure portfolios and cash flows into emerging assets like Bitcoin, creating strong FOMO waves.
Market cycle analysis report, Glassnode, 2024
Is the scenario of Bitcoin heading towards $200,000 in Q4 realistic?
With positive factors from technical structure, stable cash flow, high stablecoin reserves, and the cyclical excitement of Q4, the price target of $200,000 is considered entirely feasible by many experts by the end of 2025.
History shows that after each deep correction, especially when selling pressure weakens and large capital remains uninvested, Bitcoin's price can spectacularly break through old ATH levels in a short time.
The recent strong shake has been viewed as an opportunity to 'shake off leverage', helping the market enter a more sustainable and transparent cycle by eliminating weak speculative positions.
How do institutional expectations and ETFs affect Bitcoin's upward momentum?
Bitcoin ETFs have significantly contributed to the stability of cash flow, reinforcing the confidence of many institutional investors in Bitcoin's long-term potential.
At the same time, leading companies continue to add Bitcoin to their treasuries as part of their inflation risk hedging policy, promoting the trend of accumulating safe assets in the digital age.
The steady growth of institutional cash flow provides a synergistic drive, increasing confidence and the likelihood that Bitcoin can maintain exceptional growth in Q4, contributing to the price target of $200,000.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is high stablecoin reserve on Binance a signal for Bitcoin to rise?
When stablecoin levels on exchanges are high, large cash flows are ready to convert into Bitcoin purchases when clear growth signals emerge. This cash flow is often from whales or large institutions.
Is a 7% BTC correction a sign of trend reversal?
No, technical indicators and on-chain momentum both suggest that this is a healthy correction, not a change in the overall trend.
How do whales influence Bitcoin's price increase?
Whales with large capital often take advantage of price corrections to accumulate more Bitcoin, thereby driving up the momentum when cash flow returns strongly.
Why is Q4 often the breakout period for Bitcoin?
Many years of market history show that Q4 benefits from institutional restructuring cash flows, positive sentiment, and major events that drive FOMO.
Does the recent correction event make the market healthier?
Yes, the deep decline helps eliminate risky leveraged positions, creating space for a more sustainable price increase in the long term.
What is the biggest factor determining Bitcoin's potential to reach $200,000?
Mainly relying on institutional buying power, large stablecoin reserves, cash flow from ETF funds, and the bullish cyclical effect of Q4.
What should Bitcoin holders pay attention to before Q4?
Monitor stablecoin reserves, institutional cash flow, and price structure to early identify signals of a strong growth phase.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/bitcoin-rut-manh-nham-200-000-usd/
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