At 20:00 Beijing time on August 5, a dialogue that could rewrite the landscape of the cryptocurrency market is about to take place—former U.S. President Trump will accept an exclusive interview with CNBC's flagship program (Squawk Box), expressing views on core topics such as economic policy, Federal Reserve trends, and tariff strategies. This interview, termed the "barometer of the crypto market" by the industry, is attracting significant attention from global investors.

Policy Code: The Economic Legacy of the Trump Era Resonates with the Crypto Market

As one of the most controversial leaders in American politics, Trump's economic policies have always been closely tied to market fluctuations. His three main policy pillars during his presidency—corporate tax cuts, deregulation, and trade protection—have caused a bipolar effect in the cryptocurrency field:

  1. Tax Cut Dividend: The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act reduced the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, directly increasing market liquidity. Historical data shows that within three months of this policy's implementation, Bitcoin's price rose more than 40%, with some analysts suggesting this is related to the shift of corporate funds towards high-risk assets.

  2. Regulatory Game: The Trump administration's "tacit regulation" of the crypto industry has led to explosive growth in the sector. During the 2018 ICO boom, the SEC only took enforcement action against a few projects, and this "lenient red line" provided an incubator for innovations such as DeFi and NFTs.

  3. Cloud of Trade War: During the escalation of US-China trade frictions in 2018, global risk assets faced a sell-off, and Bitcoin showed a rare positive correlation with gold, highlighting its "digital gold" attributes. If this interview releases new tariff signals, it may trigger a repeat of capital risk aversion transfers.

Federal Reserve Offense and Defense: Interest Rate Expectations and the Nerve Endings of the Crypto Market

Trump's "bombardment" of the Federal Reserve has never ceased. The former president has repeatedly publicly accused Powell of "stifling economic growth," and his policy stance may influence the cryptocurrency market through two channels:

  1. Expectation Management Game: If Trump hints at supporting a lower interest rate environment, it could trigger market expectations for a "liquidity feast." Historical data shows that after the Federal Reserve initiated unlimited QE in 2020, Bitcoin surged by 580% within 12 months.

  2. Dollar Index Correlation: Trump's comments on currency intervention often lead to fluctuations in the dollar. In 2019, he called for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to combat the devaluation of the yuan, and on that day, the price of Bitcoin rose by 8% against the trend, demonstrating its safe-haven value as a non-sovereign currency.

Tariff Minefield: The Survival Rules of Cryptocurrencies in the Backlash Against Globalization

Currently, the most sensitive variable in the market is Trump's potential restart of "Tariff 2.0." If the interview releases the following signals, it may trigger a chain reaction:

  1. Supply Chain Shock: If rumors of a 60% tariff increase on China prove true, it could lead to rising costs for tech hardware, indirectly affecting the profitability of mining machine manufacturers, and subsequently transmitting to the computing power market.

  2. Cross-Border Payment Changes: In 2019, Trump attempted to sanction Iran through SWIFT, accelerating the penetration of cryptocurrencies in gray areas. If this interview touches upon financial sanctions, it may drive a surge in demand for stablecoins.

Survival Guide in the Storm: Three Essential Strategies for Investors

In the face of possible market shocks, professional institutions recommend constructing a "policy hedge-emotional management-long-term value" three-dimensional defense system:

  1. Dynamic Hedge Portfolio: Allocate 30% Bitcoin + 20% Ethereum + 20% Gold + 30% US Dollar Cash to reduce volatility using the negative correlation between Bitcoin and gold.

  2. Emotional Warning Indicators: Pay attention to the divergence signals between the VIX panic index and the crypto fear and greed index; when the difference exceeds 15 points, initiate position adjustments.

  3. Regulatory Arbitrage Perspective: Focus on projects with significant compliance progress, such as PayPal's stablecoin PYUSD, approved by the U.S. OCC, to avoid policy black swans.

Dragon Summary

The essence of this exclusive interview is yet another collision between traditional political power and the revolution of digital assets. Just as the UK Brexit referendum in 2016 gave birth to the Bitcoin "Independence Day rally," major political events often serve as catalysts for market restructuring. For investors, understanding the underlying logic behind the policies—retreat of globalization and the rise of digital sovereignty—may be more valuable than predicting short-term fluctuations.

When Trump's remarks cause ripples in Wall Street and the crypto circle, the real winners are always those who remain rational in the storm and see trends in chaos. After all, the charm of the crypto market lies in its ability to reward those pioneers who dare to navigate the unknown.

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