Family, today let's have a good chat about the fluctuations of Bitcoin (BTC).

First, let's talk about the key factors in the macro environment — the Federal Reserve's policy. The probability of a rate cut in September has soared to 92%. If they do cut rates, it will release a lot of liquidity, which is a significant positive for risk assets, and Bitcoin is likely to rise as well. However, there are also risk points here. The U.S. non-farm payrolls in July increased by only 73,000, while the expectation was 104,000, which has heightened concerns about an economic recession. With the economic outlook uncertain, Bitcoin's trend will also be affected.

Next, let's discuss geopolitical issues; the nuclear deterrence between Russia and the U.S. has escalated, causing safe-haven funds to flee risk assets. As a type of risk asset, Bitcoin is also inevitably impacted. When investing, this risk cannot be ignored.

From a seasonal perspective, data from the past 12 years shows that the probability of Bitcoin declining in August-September is 67%, with an average drop of 7.49%. This is not a small figure; according to this trend, the upcoming period for Bitcoin's performance looks a bit precarious.

Currently, BTC is at a critical point between bulls and bears; 116,200 is the dividing line, while 112,500 is the lifeline. In the short term, everyone should closely monitor the Federal Reserve's policy direction and ETF fund flows, as these two factors have a huge impact on short-term trends. From a medium to long-term perspective, I am still quite optimistic about Bitcoin's potential for growth in a rate-cutting cycle. However, we must also be wary of the seasonal risks in August; no one can say for sure if there will be a significant drop.

Finally, let me share my operational guide for today: you can go long near 123,600 - 113,850, targeting 114,600 - 115,500. There is a good chance it will rise to 116,200 in the next couple of days. But this is just my personal opinion; investing carries risks, so please be cautious in your operations.