On the first day of this month, Trump's previous tariff policy took effect, let's examine its impact on the crypto market and the underlying logic.
First, let's look at the core of Trump's tariff policy:
1⃣ Basic tariff: 10% for all countries, 35% for Canada (effective August 1), 30% for Mexico (effective August 1), and around 30% for China;
2⃣ A global tariff of 25%-50% on auto parts, and a global tariff of 50% on copper (mainly affecting Chile, Canada, Mexico, Peru).
Next, let's look at some data from August 2, the first day after the tariffs took effect, which can be described as quite disastrous:
📉 BTC plummeted 3% to $113,231
📉 ETH dropped 6%, SOL fell 5%
📉 24h liquidation: BTC $228 million + ETH $262 million
📉 Coinbase stock crashed 16%, Circle fell 8.4%
Trump's round of tariffs has had a significant impact on the crypto market, with the key issue being that 90% of mining equipment in the U.S. relies on imports, mainly from Chinese manufacturers like Bitmain and Canaan.
Increased tariffs = skyrocketing mining costs.
Next, we should pay attention to some key upcoming time points to track real-time changes in tariff policies, such as:
1⃣ On August 12, high-level trade negotiations between China and the U.S. Any progress on tariff reductions could trigger a rebound in risk assets.
2⃣ Additionally, at the end of August, the Federal Reserve's policy signals will be crucial.
If central bank officials hint at accelerating interest rate cuts due to economic weakness, cryptocurrencies may benefit from increased liquidity.
However, my view is that in the short term, the impact of the tariff war on the crypto market is relatively negative, but in the long term, it may actually promote the development of the crypto market.
Because if inflation really surges due to tariff policies, Bitcoin's status as 'digital gold' may significantly increase, which can refer to the logic of seeking safe-haven assets globally during the trade war period from 2018 to 2020.
