Deep潮 TechFlow News, on August 5, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzed that the July FOMC meeting maintained interest rates at 5.25%–5.50%, without providing any guidance on future rate cuts, raising market concerns about "high rates lasting longer." The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield subsequently rose to 4.24%, the U.S. dollar index returned above 100, gold fell below $3,270, Bitcoin briefly corrected to the $116,000 range, and on-chain activity declined simultaneously.
However, the non-farm payroll report for July, released three days later, unexpectedly "plummeted": only 73,000 new jobs were added, falling short of the expected 180,000, and the employment data for May and June was cumulatively revised down by about 90%. The reality of a "systematically overestimated" labor market prompted a swift reassessment of the Federal Reserve's policy path, with the CME FedWatch probability of a rate cut soaring from 38% to 82%, and bets on two rate cuts within the year rising to 64%. The 10-year yield subsequently fell below 4.10%, gold rebounded $40 intraday, and Bitcoin briefly rebounded before again dipping to around $112,000.
Although the sudden cooling of short-term employment data triggered significant market volatility, structural data such as household debt ratios, credit card default rates, and business loans indicate that the U.S. is currently in a "slowing growth" phase rather than a systemic recession. This combination of "employment decline + easing inflation" may signal that monetary policy is about to shift from tightening to loosening, and risk assets are in a window period of high volatility and liquidity games.
Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation for investment products.
