【HTX DeepThink: Federal Reserve's Unclear Easing Timeline Triggers Short-term Market Shock】On August 5, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research analyst Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) pointed out that the July FOMC meeting maintained interest rates at 5.25%–5.50%, without providing any guidance on future rate cuts, raising concerns in the market about 'high rates lasting longer.' The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield subsequently rose to 4.24%, the dollar index returned above 100, gold fell below $3,270, and Bitcoin briefly corrected to the $116,000 range, with on-chain activity declining simultaneously. However, three days later, the July non-farm payroll report unexpectedly showed a 'cliff-like decline': only 73,000 jobs were added, far below the expected 180,000, and the employment data for May–June was revised down by about 90%. The reality of the 'systemically overestimated' labor market prompted a rapid reassessment of the Federal Reserve's policy path, with the CME FedWatch's rate cut probability skyrocketing from 38% to 82%, and bets on two rate cuts this year rising to 64%. The 10-year yield subsequently fell below 4.10%, gold rebounded by $40 during the day, and Bitcoin briefly rebounded before diving again to around $112,000. Despite the sharp cooling of short-term employment data causing significant market volatility, structural data such as household debt ratios, credit card default rates, and commercial loans indicate that the U.S. is currently in a 'slowing growth' phase rather than a systemic recession. This combination of 'employment decline + easing inflation' may signal that monetary policy is about to shift from tightening to easing, with risk assets in a window of high volatility and liquidity game coexisting. Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it represent any offer, solicitation, or recommendation for investment products.

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