Bitcoin has surpassed 120,000, and rather than saying it's a halftime break, it's better to say that the real drama has just begun. The true FOMO frenzy may still be waiting in the wings.
The market always repeats similar scripts: during pullbacks, there are cries of 'the bear market is here,' and after breakthroughs, crowds rush in to chase the highs. Right now, Bitcoin is fluctuating around 114,000, and panic is spreading in the community again, but few consider that the real top never forms amidst doubt. When everyone is convinced that 'this time is really different,' and when the bears are completely silent and the onlookers fully enter, that is the prelude to the end of the feast.
Looking back at the ups and downs of this cycle: the crash in May last year caused many to panic and cut losses, but in hindsight, it was merely a 'stress test' at the beginning of the bull market; the flash crash in February this year washed out a group of indecisive holders, and now it just appears as a small wrinkle in the upward curve.
Many now feel that 120,000 is the ceiling, but ETF funds are still flowing in steadily, and institutional holdings are as solid as a rock. What’s most intriguing is the market mentality: when it dropped to 110,000, no one paid attention, but when it rises to 150,000, people rush to enter; the bears never dare to short genuinely, and the bulls panic and stop-loss at the first sign of a pullback. Ultimately, it’s often: not holding on while rising, not daring to catch when falling, and constantly bouncing between 'missing out' and 'cutting losses.'
My approach is simple: filter out the noise of short-term fluctuations and anchor on the core logic of the cycle. The main players in this bull market are ETFs and institutional funds, and these 'big players' have yet to experience true market frenzy. When they also start chasing prices indiscriminately, when everyone on the street is discussing 'buying coins to get rich,' that is when one should consider exiting.
As for now? Hold on to your spot, and just be a relaxed audience. Don't let the fluctuating market become a 'drying machine' that throws you off the bus.
