Yesterday, I used my quantitative system to take a look at the trends of global liquidity and altcoins, and I found something very interesting that made me ponder whether the current market represents a looming altcoin season!!!

From the weekly chart of CRV, it can be clearly seen that the trends of junk coins are almost highly synchronized with the changes in global liquidity. Every significant uptrend occurs during times of improved market liquidity and increased risk appetite. However, once liquidity tightens and risk assets come under pressure, altcoins quickly enter a rapid decline. Why did the trend go in the opposite direction in November? That was because Trump made a call in November, and the influence of a world-class leader is still very significant, but afterwards, it almost coincided again.

Looking at the charts of other altcoin seasons, it’s not difficult to find this pattern; the yellow line has already turned. But does this mean that the altcoin season is about to arrive? Does it indicate that liquidity is easing?

This actually confirms what we have been saying all along: the real driving force behind altcoins is not the fundamentals, but liquidity.

Since 2014, every round of altcoin bull markets has essentially not escaped the underlying logic of "liquidity leading to speculation." Currently, although junk coins like CRV have gradually developed some buy point structures on daily and weekly levels, for a sustained uptrend to form, we still need to see whether there will be a broader release of liquidity.

In other words:

Technically, one can speculate, but there must be an exit mechanism.

A true trend reversal must be accompanied by "the faucet being turned back on." The faucet is simply the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates and injecting liquidity. Yesterday, there was also an interesting piece of news: Federal Reserve Governor Quarles will resign next week, giving Trump the opportunity to appoint a governor to pressure Powell. The probability of a rate cut in September has also increased. Finally, looking at this chart, the answer is already quite clear: #加密市场反弹 $BTC $ETH