Bitcoin has recovered above $114,000 after hitting a near bottom of $112,000 over the weekend. Despite facing strong technical resistance, institutional investors remain actively accumulating. However, the seasonal negative trend in August continues to exert short-term pressure, lowering expectations to the $105,000 area.
August: Periodic Concerns for Bitcoin
Data from 2017 shows that Bitcoin recorded an average loss of 11.4% in 5 out of the last 7 Augusts. If the historical trend repeats, BTC price could drop to $105,000 — which is also the bottom of the ascending triangle pattern on the daily chart of the Bitstamp exchange. Piercing this support could shake long-term bullish prospects and trigger a deeper correction.
Conversely, if BTC holds the trend bottom and regains the $115,000 mark, the market could reset upward momentum, with the next target at $125,000. Developments in the coming sessions will play a decisive role for the remainder of Q3.
Bull Flag Structure Reestablished
Despite the gloomy outlook for August, Bitcoin has returned inside the 'bull flag' pattern — a signal reinforcing the recovery trend. According to the chart from Crypto Rover, BTC is trading around $114,500 and holding above the $112,000 zone, opening up the possibility of rising to $118,000.
Additionally, the TD Sequential indicator on the 12-hour timeframe has signaled a '9' buy, which typically appears after a strong correction — indicating that selling momentum has exhausted. This signal formed right above the $112,000 support, increasing the probability of a short-term reversal.
Nevertheless, the $115,000 level remains a significant barrier. According to analyst Captain Faibik, BTC needs to close firmly above this level to establish upward momentum towards $118,000 and beyond to $125,000.
If it cannot break out, the price may continue to fluctuate below the macro resistance zone.
Organization Continues Accumulation Amid Volatility
In the context of a volatile market, Metaplanet — a Japan-based investment company — acquired an additional 463 BTC (worth approximately $53.7 million) on August 4, at an average price of $115,895/BTC. To date, the total amount of BTC held by the company has reached 17,595 units, placing Metaplanet among the top 7 publicly listed organizations holding the largest Bitcoin globally, with a portfolio valued at over $2 billion.
Successful Retest of the $112,000 Breakout Zone
According to analysis from IncomeSharks, the recent correction has returned to test the breakout zone of $112,000 — and this support has held. The chart shows a narrow uptrend channel being established, with support starting from the April low, currently around $114,700.
As long as BTC trades above this trendline, the accumulation sentiment remains optimistic. IncomeSharks expects the price to reach the $124,000 zone if the current trend persists. In the short term, the outlook still leans towards bullish as long as the $112,000 zone remains unbroken.
