I've been trading cryptocurrencies for many years, and if you ask me if I've found any methods, I would say a little. I think it ultimately boils down to two principles: discipline and not being greedy.
Discipline mainly involves resisting the obsession with missing out; do not buy unless it reaches the expected buying point to avoid impulsive purchases. Not being greedy primarily means resisting the obsession of not wanting to sell once profit expectations are met, preventing the situation where you've made money but hesitate to take it. In fact, strictly speaking, not being greedy can also be considered a form of discipline, adhering to the profit expectations you set; when the time comes, just go without attachment, and do not regret missing out on further gains by selling too soon. So, ultimately, it comes down to one principle—discipline.
However, this one principle has been a source of shame for me. After countless painful lessons, I still cannot fully achieve it, which is why I haven't gotten rich and am still struggling.
Can the market be predicted? Can future trends be analyzed? I don't want to argue about this; I think Jiang Zhuoer's summary statement was very insightful: Long-term bullish, short-term look to the heavens.
Bitcoin is long-term bullish; this should be unquestionable in the crypto world. But why are so few people making money? Because for most traders, this is just a correct yet useless statement. It's like telling you that consistently getting up early to run is good for your health, which is true, right? But not many can actually do it.
For most traders, the long-term is too long; they can't wait. The reason they come to this high-risk gambling ground known as the 'crypto world' is that most are eager to make money, just as the great man said long ago: A thousand years is too long; I only seek the moment.
So everyone still needs to trade frequently, and the short-term market is truly unpredictable; no one knows what will happen in the next minute. No matter how impressive your candlestick chart analysis is, you can't predict when war will break out in the Middle East, you can't foresee what policies the SEC will announce on what date, you can't predict when the market will crash in Mentougou...
For an ordinary trader, the only thing that can counteract the unknown risks of the market is discipline, following the established strategy: buy when it's time to buy, sell when it's time to sell, and remain unmoved at other times. It seems very simple, right?
However, it is tormenting; I understand the principles and know what to do. It seems easy in theory, yet it is hard to put into practice. Would you say it's difficult? Would you say it's heart-wrenching?