#1. Timeframe 12h
* Local upward movement is present.
* The correction was more than 61% according to Fibonacci.
* The global downward structure has broken down (an important point).
* Signs of accumulation according to Wyckoff remain (already 182 days).
* The full implementation of accumulation according to Wyckoff has not yet been achieved - everything is still ahead.
At the current stage, it looks like this is TEST phase D (marked in the image in the appendix).
This means that the correction may soon be followed by a significant upward movement.
#2. Timeframe 4h
* There is no local breakdown of the structure yet (key level is $2.09).
* According to the Wyckoff accumulation scheme, a further decline to the $1.99–1.93 zone is possible.
* At the same time, the range of $2.18–2.12 remains an important support level from which a pump may begin.
* Price is testing diagonal resistance, which it has already broken through.
* There are 2 unclosed FVGs left below:
— between $2,090–2,078
— between $2,026–2,013
* There is also FVG on top:
— between $2,249–2,223
* Spot volumes have dropped sharply from $18M to $600K.
* Volatility is low, but often followed by momentum.
The overall picture at 4h is uncertain.
I expect the first impulse soon.
It is important to watch the FVG zones, both above and below. These are potential turning points.
#3. Timeframe 15m
* I observe a local downward movement.
* There is no breakdown of structure or change of character.
* The closest FVG from above is between $2.249–2.223.
* At the level of $2.262 – the mirror level of the “Head and Shoulders” figure.
Assumption:
I expect short-term growth until FVG is covered and the mirror level is tested.
A rollback from the mirror level is possible.
High risk zone, as it may initiate a downward impulse movement.
General conclusion:
Until three FVGs are covered, there is no local certainty.
Globally, I expect a major upward movement.
Locally, the main scenario is a swing: +4% up / -14% down.
