Today is August 5, 2025, and Bitcoin has just broken through $115,000, with a 24-hour increase of 0.98%. However, this breakthrough seems unstable and may quickly fall back, currently around $115,048.
1. From the news perspective, several important events have influenced the recent market.
On July 30, Bitcoin 'whales' suddenly transferred over $1.2 billion worth of Bitcoin to Binance, which directly caused the price to plummet from $120,000 to $115,000.
Galaxy Digital sold 80,000 Bitcoins, worth approximately $1.39 billion, which planted the seeds for a crash.
On the morning of August 1, the Asia-Pacific market also experienced a sharp decline, with the Korean Composite Index dropping over 3% and the Nikkei 225 falling by 1%. This was mainly due to the Trump administration's sudden announcement of 10%-41% 'reciprocal tariffs' on multiple countries.
Policy black swans led to the crash of risky assets, and Bitcoin was no exception.
On August 1 at 9 AM East Asia time, a major liquidation occurred in the digital currency leverage game, evaporating 4.23 billion yuan in wealth.
The largest single liquidation occurred on Huobi exchange, involving a BTC perpetual contract worth $6.83 million. This exposes the raw brutality of the cryptocurrency market.
2. From a technical perspective, $115,000 is a key position
On-chain UTXO distribution shows a significant liquidity vacuum here, forming a natural support barrier. The exchange order book is stacked with hundreds of millions of dollars in buy orders. However, if it falls below $112,700, it may trigger panic selling.
Shenlong's prediction for the market outlook
Bearish: The main concern is the double-top risk. There have been two attempts to break the $115,000 barrier in a short time, but neither succeeded. However, if it falls below $112,000, the downward target points to $70,000, with a drop of 45%.
Bullish: I primarily believe that the technical structure shows bullish signs, with the 50-day EMA providing key support, and a potential head-and-shoulders formation, targeting $148,250.
Bullish note: Many people may express doubts about this bullish sentiment, but I believe the reason for the potential surge is mainly due to the head-and-shoulders pattern. Bitcoin is currently confirming its key neckline support and then starting to rebound. If this pattern completes, based on its past behavior, it could theoretically surge to around $148,000. Historically, once a successful breakout occurs, this is roughly the increase.
However, this is a medium to long-term view, which may not be achievable in the short term. Shenlong provides a market prediction analysis here, indicating that such a trend could form; in fact, reaching it by early 2026 would be good.
3. On-chain data also shows contradictory signals
On one hand, whales are selling off; on August 1, more than 40,000 BTC were transferred to exchanges at a loss. The whale ratio on exchanges has reached a historical high.
On the other hand, over-the-counter trading platforms hold more than 500,000 BTC, indicating that demand remains strong. About 160,000 BTC were accumulated in the past 30 days.
4. Several key events in the future will affect market trends
On August 7, the new tariffs came into effect, which Shenlong believes to be a short-term negative.
On August 12, the China-US tariff truce expires; if it is not extended, it may trigger market panic.
On August 13-14, the US CPI/PPI data will be released. If inflation exceeds expectations, it may strengthen the hedging value of cryptocurrencies.
On August 21-23, the Jackson Hole meeting will be a global central bank policy barometer.
5. Shenlong's viewpoint
I think caution is needed in the short term but I am optimistic in the medium to long term. $115,000 is the dividing line between bulls and bears, with resistance at $118,750 and support at $112,700. If going long, set a stop loss below $112,500; if going short, set a stop loss above $115,500. Short-term profit target is $116,400, and medium-term target is $148,000 (see previous bullish notes for details).
6. Supplement
I must mention that MicroStrategy is still buying on dips; they recently purchased 21,021 BTC at an average price of $117,256, which clearly shows that some institutions are still accumulating.
Opportunities and risks coexist in the crypto circle; staying vigilant and finding the right timing is key. Shenlong has also discovered a short-term project with huge doubling potential! If you want to keep up, follow Shenlong for free sharing! Follow Shenlong Trends