Bitcoin's rebound has not ended, Ethereum may welcome independent market

Bitcoin is moving as expected with a 1-hour level rebound, targeting 116000~117000, which is not yet over.

Two key questions

1. Has the daily rise of Bitcoin ended?

Currently uncertain. Although falling below 112000 may trigger a daily correction, there is a triple top trend, and there is a potential opportunity on the 4-hour chart. The worst case will still create a secondary high point, and it may even push towards 126000. The probability of a daily correction in August-September is still there, but the timing may be delayed.

2. If Bitcoin peaks, will Ethereum and altcoins crash?

Not necessarily. If Ethereum is strong, it may break away from Bitcoin and create an independent market, rallying to new historical highs before correcting along with Bitcoin. The past 3 failures to break 4000 do not mean it will fail forever.

Short-term trend

Bitcoin's 1-hour rebound is not over, breaking 117500 may end the 4-hour correction, or even create a new high above 123218; otherwise, it will fall back around 112000. There is still one wave of rebound at the 15-minute level, and we need to see if it can break 117500.

Ethereum's 1-hour rebound is also not over, breaking 3740 may not lead to further correction; otherwise, it will fall back to 3300. Currently, the daily chart is healthy, with no top divergence, and the probability of a rate cut in September has risen to 89%. If it breaks 4100 before mid-August, it may rally to 5500~6700, but caution is still needed before breaking the previous high.

Trends across cycles: Weekly and daily charts are continuously moving upwards; the 4-hour chart is still in a downtrend, breaking 117500 is key; both the 1-hour and 15-minute levels are showing an upward trend. $BTC $ETH $SOL #加密市场反弹