Now I have a desk set up on the balcony, watching the market in the morning and accompanying my child in the afternoon. The 500,000 USDT in my account slowly grows like a snowball. In fact, short-term trading isn’t that mysterious — it's like playing poker; the important thing isn't having a good hand, but knowing when to bet and when to fold.
If you hold funds within 500,000 USDT, remember this: The essence of short-term trading is not 'quick profit', but 'exchanging controllable risks for certain profits'. When you can see 'funds secretly entering the market' in a 15-minute K line, rather than just red and green numbers jumping, you are not far from stable profits.
1. The enlightenment of Bitcoin in 2011: The death trap in the 5-minute K line.
In 2011, while browsing forums in an internet cafe, the pop-up news 'Bitcoin breaks $30' struck me like a lightning bolt. Just retired, I was confused about my life direction, and this concept of 'decentralized currency' excited me — I realized I could make money just from K line fluctuations without having to appease a boss.
In the first six months, I turned (Japanese candlestick charts) over, using 3000 yuan in capital to trade spot on the Mentougou exchange. I only focused on the 5-minute chart for short-term trades, entering on MACD golden crosses and exiting on dead crosses, thinking I had mastered the holy grail. As a result, after a year, I paid over 8000 in fees, and my account was left with only 1200. Looking back now, I made three fatal technical mistakes at that time:
Ignoring cycle resonance: When the 5-minute line has a golden cross, the daily K line is still in a downward channel, a typical small cycle false signal.
Slippage cost not calculated: Altcoin depth is poor, market orders often execute 3-5 points worse than expected.
Stop loss without quantification: Setting stop loss levels based on feelings, always fantasizing about 'false breakouts' after a drop, ultimately suffering deep losses.
In 2013, I got involved in leveraged trading on OKCoin, going all in with 2x long on Litecoin during the big bull market in November, turning 3000 into 20,000 in three days. At that time, I thought the crypto world was an ATM, until in December the central bank issued a document, and LTC plummeted from 80 yuan to 20 yuan. I was adding margin just one second before the liquidation and ended up with only 37 yuan left. That's when I realized: leverage is a magnifying glass, capable of amplifying profits, but also amplifying the foolishness of 'not believing in evil.'
2. The darkest moment of 2015: The technical awakening behind 1 million debt.
The real destruction began with the launch of ETH in 2015. At that time, I was obsessed with 'swing + contract' dual strategies, believing my improved 'Bollinger Band breakout strategy' could ensure profits: long at the lower band, short at the upper band, using 3x leverage. After three months of continuous profits, I started to massively increase leverage — borrowing 500,000 from relatives, cashing out 300,000 on my credit card, and even mortgaging my parents' old house.
On July 20, ETH surged from $12 to $15. I opened a 10x short position at $14.8, firmly believing 'overbought must correct.' But at 4 AM, Vitalik suddenly announced the completion of the DAO fork, and ETH shot straight to $18, with the margin rate instantly dropping below 10%. The technical indicators clearly showed that RSI had reached the overbought zone at 85, so why did I get liquidated? It wasn't until I reviewed that I discovered the fatal flaw:
Not combined with on-chain data: Glassnode shows that whales have continuously deposited 100,000 ETH in the $14-15 range, a clear accumulation signal that I overlooked.
Mismatch of leverage and volatility: At that time, ETH's 24-hour volatility reached 18%, and 10x leverage meant that a 10% fluctuation would lead to liquidation, which was very likely given the market conditions.
Stop loss execution failure: Set a stop loss at $16, but fell asleep while watching the market until dawn and got forcibly liquidated in my dreams, never triggering a manual closure.
When the liquidation call came and my phone was dead, my account balance was only 0.003 BTC. That night I sat by the river all night, my phone filled with debt collection messages. My wife silently transferred her dowry money, saying only, 'Don't think too much, if the technique is wrong, just change it.'
3. The technical breakthrough of 2017: 365 days of iteration from simulated trading to real trading.
After six months of silence, I opened a simulated account with 20,000 yuan given by my wife, doing three things every day:
Draw 100 K line charts: Mark the support levels of ETH in different cycles (such as 20-week moving average, previous high neckline), discovering that the 60-day moving average is a strong resistance in a bear market.
Backtesting 2000 trades: Statistics revealed that the long signal 'RSI<30 + increased bullish line' had a win rate 42% higher than pure golden crosses.
On-chain data modeling: Quantify data such as net inflow from exchanges and large transfers (>1000 BTC). When 'daily net inflow exceeds 500 million USDT', the long trade success rate increases to 71%.
In the 2018 bear market, I used this 'technical analysis + on-chain data' combination in practice:
Spot side: When BTC fell below $6000, combined with Glassnode's SOPR indicator (<0.85), I built positions in batches, adding 10% for every 10% drop, strictly controlling the position within 50%.
Contract side: Only take trend trades on the 4-hour level, ensuring that the margin usage rate never exceeds 30%, with stop loss set at the 1/2 position of the most recent large bullish candle.
The most critical breakthrough was the March 12, 2020, crash: At 2 AM, I discovered that the funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts suddenly dropped to -0.5% (annualized -182%). Combined with the appearance of the 'morning star' pattern on the 1-hour chart, I decisively opened a 2x long position, earning back 600,000 in five days and paying off all debts.
4. The current trading system: Written for you who are still in losses.
Now, I have three pieces of paper posted in front of my trading desk:
Three key elements for entry:
Daily K line firmly above the EMA20 moving average.
On-chain number of transactions increased for three consecutive days.
Contract funding rate within ±0.01% (long and short balanced).
Position formula:
Number of contracts opened = (Account net worth × 2%) ÷ (Stop loss points × Contract multiplier)
Example: For an account of 100,000 USDT, with ETH stop loss at 50 points, 1 contract = 10 USDT, number of contracts opened = (100,000 × 2%) ÷ (50 × 10) = 4 contracts.
Stop loss iron law:
Maximum unrealized loss in spot trading does not exceed 5% of total funds, and single coin position does not exceed 30%.
Contract stop loss must be strictly enforced, even if it later proves to be a false breakout.
Two consecutive stop losses, stop trading that day, review the indicator parameters.
Last year, I bought a house with a terrace in Hainan, where I could see the sea during the transaction. My wife often laughs at me: 'Back then, I held my urine all day just to watch the market, now I’ve learned to take a walk every closing.' In fact, in trading, technique is the foundation, and mindset is the amplifier — when you can prove with data that 'this trade has a 70% probability of making money, and even if wrong, you only lose 2%', you won't panic.
If you are still struggling on the edge of liquidation, I send you the words I pasted on my monitor: 'There is no holy grail in the crypto world, but there is mathematics. Quantify each trade with data, and the market will give you answers.'
If you are also a technical enthusiast, feeling helpless and confused in trading, wanting to learn more about the crypto world and access cutting-edge information, click on my avatar to follow me, so you won't get lost! Clear market views give you confidence in your operations. Consistent profits are far more practical than fantasizing about getting rich.
