$BTC $ETH 【Market Outlook on August 4, 25 Years】
Last week was quite nerve-wracking almost every day due to major macro events and a pile-up of data. Early Saturday morning, because of a comment from Trump about non-farm payrolls being fake, the entire market turned downward, with Bitcoin temporarily reaching important support around 112. Ethereum experienced a deep washout of 500 points. However, this also helped clear about one-third of the long leverage, and the liquidity between long and short contracts has nearly returned to a balanced state. One could say the entire weekend was filled with a thick haze of smoke, but precisely because of Trump's interference, expectations for a rate cut in September have risen, which can be seen as both beneficial and detrimental.
Fortunately, the market rebounded on Monday. Although the momentum wasn't too strong, it managed to pull away from a critical edge, and there’s a high probability that after a brief adjustment, it may continue to push higher. This week, there is only one piece of data to consider (unemployment claims will be released on Thursday night at 20:30 🇺🇸), which can be temporarily ignored. The focus should be on the rebound over the next couple of days and the U.S. stock market opening at 21:30 tonight to confirm whether it stabilizes. I still have a positive outlook on the market; Ethereum basically set up long positions again around 3480 last night on Sunday. When opportunities arise, make sure to seize them well.
From a technical perspective: Bitcoin's daily MACD shows a bottom divergence signal, and short-term rebound momentum is strengthening, but the 4-hour Bollinger Bands are opening downwards, indicating that it is still in a phase of fluctuating repair.
Bitcoin 4h Support: 11364 Resistance: 115253
Ethereum 4h Support: 3509 Resistance: 3610
Today's Fear Index: 65 (Greed)
4-hour Long/Short Ratio: 46.8% / 53.2%
Intraday Hot News:
🪅 U.S. Trade Representative: Tariff policy is basically fixed
🪅 Ethereum spot ETF saw a net inflow of $154 million last week, continuing a net inflow for 12 weeks
🪅 A certain ETH ICO whale may end its selling cycle and start buying, having recently withdrawn 13,600 ETH from CEX
🪅 Analysts: Considering the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates twice more this year, there are two more upward opportunities in this bull market expected
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