Fuck! Just a few months ago, those guys in suits and ties were boasting about how the American economy was so indestructible that Trump's tariffs wouldn't even leave a mark. BlackRock's Reid was the loudest guy, boasting that the US was "the most resilient economy in the world." Now, that's just fucking embarrassing! Last Friday, the non-farm payroll data hit like a wall, sending the stock market plummeting—a resounding smack in the face. Wall Street's "bulletproof" facade has been completely shattered!
Wake up, buddy! The economic alarm has been blaring for half a fucking month, but you guys have been covering your ears tightly!
Ocean Park's Obin saw it clearly: a bunch of people are using "economic resilience" like an aphrodisiac, and they're hallucinating! Valuations are sky-high, risk pricing is as cheap as rotten cabbage, and credit spreads are as thin as razor blades—this isn't investing, it's dancing on the edge of a cliff with your eyes blindfolded! They even call it the "bulletproof fiber economy," but ugh! If you put this thing on someone and it explodes, you'll be left with nothing!
Two pieces of shit on your face and you think they are chocolate?
The Federal Reserve is practically a slave to the White House! Trump and his team have been urging interest rate cuts for months, even spouting nonsense like "Powell needs to be fired because the headquarters renovations are overspent!" Political influence is playing into the hands of the central bank. Monetary policy independence? It's already been thrown to the dogs!
Is the tariff shock just a "cold"? You're coughing up your lungs! Are those stock market gurus still dreaming big? They think the leftovers from tax cuts and the AI bubble can offset the tariff bomb? Obin is right: this shock isn't evenly distributed! Certain industries have already been chopped to pieces, and Wall Street is still saying, "It's not a big deal!"
"Superstitious? You're taking punches for nothing!" Aubin's words are a bit simplistic, but they hold true. When risk is sold at rock-bottom prices, a crash isn't a matter of "if," but "when and how horribly"—will the bomb on the roof explode first, or will a black swan fly out from some corner and peck at your eggs?
The abscesses under the prosperous mask are bleeding!
Yes, the interest rate hike tornado in 2022 was withstood, and inflation has subsided. But the underlying image of this "resistance" has long been rotten:
Service consumption is slumping: the coffin lid is about to give way! Wells Fargo has revealed a stark figure: service consumption fell 0.3% year-on-year in May. Don’t underestimate this 0.3%! Look through the almanac of sixty years ago – if this number drops, it’s the eve of a recession! Gyms are gone, video membership renewals are dreadful, and spending on cars is down 1.1%. Flying? It’s a complete wreck – a 4.7% drop! How can this be considered data? This is the bittersweet account of ordinary people’s pockets being emptied by inflation! Repairing the car? Wait until it falls apart! Taking a taxi? Better to walk! Travel? You can have it all in your dreams!
The real estate market is stagnant: the interest rate meat grinder is running full throttle! Citigroup, revisiting its ancestral wisdom, slams its head on the table: "Housing is the harbinger of a dying economy!" New data sends chills down your spine: a 1.3% contraction in residential investment in the first quarter was just foreshadowing, followed by a 4.6% collapse in the second quarter! The hammers of construction stopped working in June, leaving single-family home construction sites deserted enough for stray dogs! A 7% mortgage rate coupled with sky-high housing prices? This isn't buying a house, it's building your own guillotine! Citigroup issued a stern warning: "When interest rates hit 7%, the end is in the coffin of economic expansion!"
Wall Street's idiots are so slow to react! Even before the non-farm payroll figures exploded, Citigroup had already seen that something was amiss in the labor market: labor force participation was waning, while the unemployment rate was being suppressed as if nothing was wrong. How could this be Trump blocking immigration? It's simply that employers are shrinking their necks and not hiring! Last Friday's data completely ripped the fig leaf off the table!
When the sixty-year-old mirror of service consumption shows its decline, when the real estate, the harbinger of death, screams at the top of its lungs, when the tariff knife really cuts into bones, and when the Federal Reserve becomes a plaything of politicians - who can still be fooled by the "Iron Shirt Economic Magic" compiled by Wall Street with a few crappy PPTs?
Those who are counting their money in the dream of "anti-construction", have they really not heard the creaking of the load-bearing beams under their feet? Have they not smelled the rotten smell rising from the foundation?
Finally, a heartbreaking question: When all the sirens are screaming their asses off, when historical experience is slapping you in the face—are you still planning to hunker down in the pit, deceiving yourself that this wave of lightning won't kill you? When the lightning strikes, will the one who runs faster survive, or will the one wearing gold and silver be the first to be struck by the lightning?