Elon Musk raises new questions about the long-term security of Bitcoin in the context of rapid advancements in quantum computing. The CEO of Tesla and SpaceX explores the possibility of the SHA-256 hash algorithm used by Bitcoin being cracked by powerful quantum computers through his AI chatbot Grok.
He raised this question just as IBM announced significant plans for its next-generation quantum system 'Blue Jay', which is expected to achieve 2,000 global qubits by 2033.
According to Grok's analysis, the risk of quantum computers cracking Bitcoin encryption within the next five years is extremely low, with AI estimating this probability to be close to zero.
However, looking ahead to 2035, the probability will slightly increase, but will still remain below 10%. These data are based on expert assessments and current quantum computing capabilities.
"Based on assessments from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and IBM's 2025 evaluation along with expert surveys, the probability of quantum computers breaking SHA-256 using Grover's algorithm (which reduces the complexity of finding the original image to about 2^128 operations) within the next 5 years is close to 0%, and below 10% before 2035. This requires millions of error-correcting qubits..." — Grok (@grok) August 2, 2025
Musk's concerns are not unfounded. Companies like Google and Microsoft are developing their own quantum platforms (Willow and Majorana 1), sparking discussions about whether cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin may be vulnerable to attacks from these super-powerful systems in the future.
Currently, most quantum systems possess only about 1,000 qubits, far below the millions of error-correcting qubits scientists believe are needed to break Bitcoin's cryptographic defenses.
Grok adds that if necessary in the future, stronger algorithms such as SHA-3 or SHA-512 could be adopted as alternatives.
Meanwhile, a recent analysis by global auditing firm Deloitte shows that quantum computers may soon threaten the security of the Bitcoin blockchain, with approximately 25% of Bitcoin currently at risk of being stolen by quantum attacks.
Analysts say that the computational power of future quantum computers may be strong enough to crack the entire transaction process. To mitigate this risk, the Bitcoin network needs to adopt post-quantum cryptography. This is an emerging but complex solution currently being explored by cryptographers worldwide.
IBM's new system 'Blue Jay' will have over 1 billion gate operations capability, far exceeding the performance range of current computers.
This is an important initiative for the company to strive to be at the forefront of quantum computing in the early 2030s. With industry giants like Google and Microsoft closely following, the competition is becoming increasingly fierce.
Musk's concerns are not purely academic. Tesla currently holds 11,500 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $1.3 billion at current prices. SpaceX also holds a considerable amount, reportedly around $850 million in Bitcoin. Musk himself has confirmed that he holds Bitcoin in his personal investment portfolio.
Given the scale of these holdings, it's no wonder Musk wants to address potential threats in advance. His tweets may seem lighthearted, but they indicate a growing concern in the tech community about the impact that advancements in quantum technology may have on cryptocurrencies and the financial sector.