Recently, it seems that the Bank of Japan's stance has changed a bit. I've heard that they might take action to adjust policies as early as October? This topic has been quite heated in the market.

Why does everyone think there’s a chance? First, looking externally, the United States and Japan have just reached a trade agreement, which has reduced some of the previously hanging trade uncertainties, giving the Bank of Japan a bit of room to adjust its policies.

Next, looking at the domestic economy, inflation data is key. At the end of July, the Bank of Japan held a meeting and raised its core CPI forecast for 2025 from 2.2% to 2.7%, also stating that inflation risks are now “generally balanced”—previously, they always mentioned a downward bias, but now this statement is clearly different, indicating that inflation is indeed gaining some momentum. Additionally, regarding wages, there is a severe labor shortage in the non-manufacturing sector, and companies are eager to raise salaries. The wage negotiations next spring might see increases of over 4.5%, which could further support inflation.

The market has also started to move, with Barclays bringing forward its interest rate hike expectation from January next year to October, and Nomura raising the probability of October from 30% to 40%. Some surveys indicate that 42% of economists believe action might be taken in October, which is a significant increase from before.

However, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has poured a bit of cold water on this, stating at a press conference that uncertainty remains high and it’s not yet at a point where a rate hike is unavoidable. Following these remarks, the yen fell below 150 against the dollar, causing expectations to drop a bit. But analysts at Nomura mention that overall, the stance is still somewhat “hawkish,” so don’t be swayed by a few comments.

So, whether there will be action in October is still uncertain; we can only wait for further news~#美国加征关税