The Federal Reserve is at it again! This time even the board members are fleeing!
Today I saw Derek Halpenny from Mitsubishi UFJ Financial say that Federal Reserve board member Quigley suddenly resigned, and I nearly spat out my coffee. Why did this guy suddenly quit when he was doing fine? Moreover, it just happens to coincide with Trump constantly shouting for interest rate cuts, how convenient!
Now the market is guessing what kind of person Trump will appoint to take over. If you ask me, this new board member will probably be someone "obedient." Just look at how anxious Trump is lately, constantly scolding Powell on Twitter for not cutting rates, it’s like he's in a panic. If he really gets one of his own into the Federal Reserve, wouldn't that mean he gets to decide on rate hikes and cuts from then on?
Halpenny is right, the key issue here isn't who gets replaced, but whether the Federal Reserve will remain independent after this. Just think, if a president can replace board members whenever they dislike the monetary policy, how is that any different from the central banks in certain countries? My forex trading friends are all reassessing their dollar assets, fearing that one day the Federal Reserve will suddenly change its stance.
However, to be fair, there is a reason why Trump is so eager to cut rates. The election is next year, and if the economic data doesn't look good, his re-election could be in jeopardy. But the problem is, inflation hasn't been completely kept in check yet; would hastily cutting rates lead to new troubles?
As a small retail investor, I can only tremble in fear, and I plan to convert my dollar investments into gold for safety as they mature. What do you think, can the Federal Reserve withstand the pressure and maintain its independence this time?