In July, the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged, still between 4.25% and 4.5%.
Now, what everyone is most concerned about is whether they will cut rates in September.
Because the recent employment growth data has not been good, weaker than expected, many traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will soon take action, which means a rate cut.
According to the Federal Reserve Watch tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the market now believes there is a higher probability of a 0.25 percentage point rate cut next month.
Especially in the cryptocurrency circles on platform X, people have higher expectations for a rate cut in September due to the weak employment data.
It is worth noting that earlier today, the market believed the probability of a rate cut was as high as 89.1%, close to nine out of ten, indicating that a rate cut seems very likely.
However, the latest data shows that the probability of a rate cut in September has dropped to 78.5%, a decline from the previous peak.
Conversely, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve choosing to keep the current interest rate unchanged in September is only 21.5%.
In simple terms: although the market's expectation for a rate cut in September is slightly lower than earlier today, overall, the probability of a rate cut remains very high, close to eighty percent.