Citigroup has raised its gold price expectations again, this time directly seeing $3600!

Today I saw the latest gold forecast report from Citigroup, and I was truly surprised. They directly raised their gold price target for the next three months from $3300 to $3500, and the most outrageous part is that the upper limit of the expected trading range is set at $3600! I remember last year around this time analysts were still discussing whether $2000 could hold steady...

To be honest, as an old gold investor, I am not surprised at all by this raised expectation. Recently, US economic data has started to weaken, especially the job market has clearly cooled down. The Citigroup report specifically mentioned that the slowdown in the US economy will be more apparent in the second half of 2025, coupled with the possibility of repeated inflation, all of which are very favorable for gold.

More importantly, the movement of the US dollar. If the Federal Reserve really starts a rate-cutting cycle, a weakening dollar is almost a certainty. I checked the historical data, and every time the dollar index falls, gold has a decent rally. This time, the $3500-$3600 range predicted by Citigroup is likely based on this foundation.

Geopolitical risks are also an important factor. The situation in the Middle East has become tense again, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict is not over, all these uncertainties are driving up the safe-haven demand for gold. Several friends of mine who are investors have recently increased their holdings in gold ETFs; it seems everyone is thinking along the same lines.

However, to be fair, the $3600 target is indeed a bit aggressive. Although the logic of gold rising in the long term is very clear, short-term fluctuations are certainly unavoidable. My own strategy is to buy in batches when prices are low, not to chase highs, after all, market sentiment changes too quickly...