99% of people simply believe: Federal Reserve rate cuts = bull market in cryptocurrency

This is very wrong ❌, the last 4 bull markets

① In 2017, BTC surged to 19800, while the Federal Reserve was in a rate hike cycle of 1.25%-1.50%

② In November 2021, BTC reached a peak of 69000, with long-term interest rates close to 0; rate cuts had begun as early as March 2020

③ In 2023, during the rebound to 73000, it was a rate hike cycle

④ In 2024, during the range of 74000-123000, interest rates remained unchanged

From a results-oriented perspective, it can be summarized as:

Expectations of rate cuts are more likely to drive prices up

Rate cuts do not necessarily drive prices up

Price increases do not necessarily happen immediately

Stability in interest rates makes it easier to drive prices up, whether at high or low levels

What is the reason? ❓

1. From the perspective of the cryptocurrency market - the core driver of the bull market is hindered by application explosions, such as Ethereum in 2017, NFT game finance in 2021, the entry of MicroStrategy institutions, and ETF expectations

2. Rate cuts are the result of a deteriorating economy - the goal is to reduce debt costs, which is difficult to translate into cryptocurrency investments; however, existing funds may become conservative due to declining returns

Therefore, bull markets in the cryptocurrency space generally arrive before rate cuts or wait for a stable phase after rate cuts; essentially, they are waiting for expectations.