Author: miya
Compiled by: ShenChao TechFlow
First, this is not an attack on LetsBonk; I believe Tom's team at Bonk has done an excellent job of winning the favor of memecoin, making any counterattack seem pointless. LetsBonk has won the memecoin war and will continue to maintain its dominance.
PumpFun is winning. Your first reaction might be to laugh at me for not understanding the market. But before concluding, let's look at some data that clearly indicates PumpFun is not winning.
LetsBonk not only successfully captured market recognition in daily token issuance but also became the absolute leader in the token issuance field.
LetsBonk currently leads in token issuance quantity by about 3.7 times and successfully captured 65.1% of the market share in just one month. Furthermore, LetsBonk's token distribution events are about 7.8 times that of PumpFun. Although PumpFun has a higher token issuance volume in each distribution event, LetsBonk has become a more favorable (+EV) trading launch platform.
So why is PumpFun considered to be winning now? All indicators and charts seem to show the gap. Let me explain:
Now it is time to start from a broader perspective to understand why PumpFun's strategy has been executed so perfectly so far.
PumpFun's revenue has plummeted from $7.07 million to $469,000, a decrease of $6.601 million, with 24-hour peak revenue dropping by 93.4%.
Memecoin is dying. The entire market has been continuously declining since February 2025. This is reflected not only in PumpFun's 24-hour revenue plummeting by 93.4% but also affects LetsBonk, with the overall market size shrinking.
The share of trading volume may look as follows:
The actual market size that these two are competing for is shown below:
This chart does not yet account for the significant increase in bot activity; the actual decline in real user trading volume is even more severe.
Since the release of the celebrity coin meta data, the risk appetite for Solana memecoins has been continuously declining. Significant mining events like MELANIA and LIBRA have accelerated this downward trend.
Retail investors' risk appetite.
It is fair to say that memecoin has lost its former glory. To understand why the actual situation is worse than what is seen from the outside, please check the detailed analysis in the three previous series of articles I published.
Original article link: Solanas 'Crime Gap'
The memecoin supercycle has entered a complete tail end.
For a company aiming to operate for more than two years, Memecoin is not an ideal future investment. Memecoin trading has evolved into a place for capital betting that not only resembles an ordinary casino but is also a site with extremely low expectations (-EV).
"Oh, but they are already addicted, just squeeze more capital from the traders."
Let me give you a simple analogy: it's like you went to a restaurant that is beautifully decorated, has low prices, and top-notch service, making you feel like you're in paradise. However, every time you finish, it leaves you in pain. Ask yourself, would you frequently choose such a dining service?
Look, even the most addicted gamblers are leaving the Memecoin market because they know they will only end up 'being tortured.' Those savvy market participants have developed extremely advanced tools and have informational advantages (like FNF and insider coins), leaving ordinary traders further behind in the future. This is an irreversible path: insider advantages are gradually increasing while the capital available to ordinary traders is gradually decreasing.
So let's return to the title: Why will PumpFun win?
Let me ask the following question: If you were Alon (CEO of PumpFun), what different choices would you make?
Option 1: Use your substantial funds to repurchase $PUMP.
Well, suppose he now establishes a $200 million fund to repurchase $PUMP using TWAP (Time-Weighted Average Price) over the next 31 days, and uses the resulting fees for 100% revenue buybacks. Would that solve all the problems? No, not at all. The memecoin market is still in continuous decline, and PumpFun still bears the heavy brand image of a 'memecoin launchpad.' Repurchasing $PUMP will not bring market risk appetite back to past highs, nor will it restore the liquidity needed to support organic 'hit coins.' Will it boost market sentiment in the short term? Perhaps. But will it revive the memecoin market? No. This would be a capital-intensive commitment made in a declining market, which is inherently detrimental to long-term sustainability.
Option 2: Airdrop $PUMP to users and create new liquidity.
Similarly, the only result of this approach is injecting capital into a declining market and shrinking market share. PumpFun will risk issuing free funds that not only cannot be recovered but, worse, may flow into the hands of competitors.
Alon has executed this hypothetical strategy almost perfectly to date.
PumpFun must evolve. Continuing to compete in this already lifeless memecoin gambling field is pointless.
So, let's take a look at what is currently happening.
LetsBonk has invested most of its expenses into BONK and GP but does not have a large fund reserve. Insiders hold significant allocations in projects like BONK and USELESS, which is essentially their way of cashing out and making money through the Launchpad. Whatever happens next, they may attract market attention but lack funding support.
They may be losing the memecoin war, but due to the extremely low future expectations for this field, winning this war may actually be worse than losing it.
@rasmr_eth made some suggestions for PumpFun's future, with a key point being to create a $200 million 'hit project' on PF (e.g., ChillHouse). However, I believe this is a completely unnecessary investment and further indicates that PumpFun is still competing for a declining market. I think PumpFun has given up on the idea of making memecoin glorious again; otherwise, they would not have stopped tweeting for a week or given up competing with LetsBonk.
While I do not know the specific actions currently happening within PumpFun, I do know that Solana Labs is preparing for ICM: bringing back practicality to its chain during the upcoming bear market cycle.
Regardless of the narrative that unfolds next, PumpFun is financially well-prepared to stay ahead of any other participants.
I also find the idea that Alon would give up on PumpFun very ridiculous.
PumpFun has a mature brand, extensive connections within the Solana ecosystem, and a clear company structure. No one would give up a well-functioning company just because they cashed out a certain amount; this viewpoint is baseless in the business development (BD) field and is only spread by speculators accustomed to 'cashing out events.' While I don't believe Alon would reinvest all revenues back into the business, I am confident that PumpFun will successfully attempt to conquer the next market in Solana during the upcoming bear market cycle.
I believe $PUMP is one of the long-term holding options worth considering in the upcoming bear market. If you think this cycle will last another year, then the current price is a reasonable investment point.
I hold $PUMP in the spot market as a hedge against my potential misjudgment of the cycle ending soon. I believe there are hardly any other highly liquid altcoins more suitable for this bet than $PUMP.
