Bitcoin has recently continued to fluctuate narrowly below $120,000, seemingly stabilizing, but the latest report from 10x Research warns that "as the market enters August, a month historically bearish for Bitcoin, the upward momentum may be losing power," raising concerns among investors about the reappearance of the "August Curse."
The cryptocurrency market usually experiences a decline in trading sentiment and a sharp drop in mainstream cryptocurrency prices every August, which is also the habitual month for Bitcoin sell-offs.
According to data compiled by 10x Research, August has been the weakest month for Bitcoin performance over the past 10 years, with only 3 years showing gains (2013, 2017, and 2021), while all other years ended with declines ranging from 5% to 20%.
In addition to seasonal fatigue, capital inflow has also noticeably slowed down.
The 10x Research report mentions that although the total cumulative capital inflow into Bitcoin has exceeded $1 trillion, with over $206 billion contributed just in 2025, the "30-day average inflow" used to observe capital momentum has dropped from $62.4 billion to $59.3 billion. Similar situations occurred during the peak periods of the first and fourth quarters of 2024, suggesting that the market may be entering a phase of sideways consolidation.
Image source: 10x Research
Markus Thielen, co-founder and chief analyst of 10x Research, wrote in the report:
Time is running out; although corporate buying has brought in billions of dollars, the effect on price support has been surprisingly small. This may mean that even if there is continuous capital injection in the future, the market may not surge as many expect.
10x Research indicates that after Bitcoin falls below $117,000, the first support level is at $112,000, and if that is breached, the more critical defense line is between $106,000 and $110,000.
However, despite the overall technical and capital flow structure appearing slightly weak, the market is not entirely pessimistic. Bulls still hope that "history will repeat itself," as the years when the "August Curse" was broken—2013, 2017, and 2021—happened to be the years following halving, commonly referred to as "bull market years."
Now in 2025, we are at a critical point in the year following Bitcoin's halving. If history repeats itself, this historically challenging month may also have a chance to rise against the trend and bring surprises.
This article is authorized for reprint from: (Block Girl)
Original title: (Capital Inflow Slows Down, Weak Momentum in Price Rise, Will Bitcoin Overcome the 'August Curse' This Year?)
Original author: Block Girl MEL
"The Bitcoin August Curse is Coming! Capital Inflow Slows Down, Weak Momentum to Rise, Is There Hope for a Countertrend Surge?" This article was first published in "Crypto City"
