Bitcoin's August "Triple Nuclear Bomb" Detonates! $1 Billion Liquidation + Tariff Nuclear Bomb, September Life-or-Death Situation Exposed!
Core Negative Trio
1. Historical Curse: In the past 10 years, Bitcoin has only risen 3 times in August, with an average decline of 5%-20%; in the last 7 years, BTC/ETH has closed down in August for 5 years. European and American institutional traders take summer vacations, leading to a sharp decline in market liquidity, making small fluctuations easier to amplify.
2. Policy Vacuum: The Federal Reserve's July meeting has concluded; the next decision will wait until September 17, lacking stimulus policies such as interest rate cuts and ETFs, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.
3. Collapse of Rate Cut Expectations: The Federal Reserve maintains interest rates at 4.25%-4.5% and has not mentioned lowering rates; the probability of a rate cut in September has plummeted from 60% to 40%. The main reason is the 3% U.S. GDP growth and 2.5% core inflation at a high level, coupled with Trump's tariffs raising import costs, making the Federal Reserve hesitant to loosen.
Deadly Catalyst: Trump's Tariff War
Global Tax Increase List: Switzerland, South Africa, India, Southeast Asia, Canada.
Chain Reaction: Price increases for imported goods, making it harder to suppress inflation, causing the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts; global trade shrinks, economic expectations worsen, and risk assets like Bitcoin are sold off.
Market Reality Verification
On-Chain Selling Pressure: Large holders cashed out $6-8 billion in profits in a single day at the end of July.
Liquidation Bloodbath: In early August, a drop of 24 hours led to $1 billion in liquidations, and on August 4, another $370 million.
Technical Breakdown: Key support at $115,000 was lost, touching a low of $112,000 on August 4; if it falls below that, it could drop to $111,000.
September Life-or-Death Line Shenlong Operation Strategy
Short-term: Mainly downward trend, with a fluctuation range of $112,000-$114,000, hard to break previous highs.
Turning Point: Whether the Federal Reserve cuts rates in September will determine if the bull market restarts or undergoes a deep correction.
Shenlong Operation Mantra:
Don't be reckless in August, fight again in September.
Panic selling can be done in batches; don't chase after surges;
Long-term holders should guard the $110,000 level, watch if it breaks.
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