The Life and Death Battle of Blockchain: Centralized State-Owned Public Chains vs Ethereum, Who Will Dominate the Next Decade?
From a policy perspective, our country has long maintained strict regulation of cryptocurrencies while encouraging blockchain technology. This suggestion signals a move towards technological compliance: allowing 'licensed public chains' led by state-owned enterprises to carry out compliant applications such as digital renminbi and stablecoins, while combating illegal fundraising and money laundering associated with private public chains.
In terms of market structure, compliant public chains that integrate cross-border payments may attract institutional funds and divert existing capital from the cryptocurrency market; their technological performance may squeeze the survival space of smaller public chains. In the financial sector, compliant stablecoins may become mainstream, while non-compliant cryptocurrencies are marginalized; applications in government affairs, supply chains, and other real sectors will accelerate but will decouple from the speculative nature of the cryptocurrency market.
The technological route is shifting towards controllability: existing public chains emphasize complete decentralization but have poor performance; national-level public chains may adopt a hybrid architecture of 'consortium chain + public chain' to balance openness and regulation. The developer ecosystem will receive resource allocation, but sensitive applications such as DeFi and NFTs will be restricted, pushing the cryptocurrency market towards compliant innovation.
Investor behavior will diverge in the short term: funds may shift towards compliant public chains, causing price fluctuations in Ethereum, BNB, and others; non-compliant projects will face stricter regulations, accelerating market clearing. In the long term, projects that integrate with the real economy will benefit from policy dividends, while speculative tokens may be eliminated.
In global competition, if China's public chains can break through ecological compatibility and cross-chain standards, they may compete for the stablecoin market; leveraging the Belt and Road Initiative to layout cross-border payments can aid the internationalization of the renminbi. However, caution is needed regarding U.S. geopolitical restrictions; without popular applications like DeFi, there is a risk of becoming an isolated domestic island.
Conclusion from Shenlong: The establishment of public chains by state-owned enterprises is not about 'eliminating the cryptocurrency market', but rather promoting 'compliant survival'. Short-term market volatility is inevitable, and the era of unchecked growth is coming to an end; surviving projects must deeply bind with the real economy, or they will be eliminated by history.
Opportunities and risks coexist in the cryptocurrency market; staying vigilant and seizing the right moments is key. Shenlong has also discovered a project with huge potential for short-term surges! Want to keep up? Follow Shenlong for free sharing! Stay tuned to Shenlong trends
