Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin (BTC) has been embroiled in a rising spiral of controversy regarding 'bubbles' and 'collapses.' From its first breakthrough of $1 in 2011 followed by a 90% crash, to surging to $69,000 in 2021 and then halving, and finally breaking $100,000 in 2024, its price volatility far exceeds traditional assets, leaving the 'bubble theory' ever-present. However, as seasoned participants in the crypto space, we need to step back from short-term price fluctuations and analyze the underlying logic: is Bitcoin really just a pure bubble? Will it eventually collapse completely?
1. The 'Bubble Controversy' of Bitcoin: Why Is It Constantly Questioned?
1. Price Volatility and Speculative Attributes: The Intuitive Manifestation of Short-Term Bubbles
Bitcoin's price volatility has consistently been 5-10 times that of traditional assets. The extreme situation in 2021, where prices dropped over 30% in a single day, and the 78% drop during the bear market in 2022, have deeply ingrained the label of 'speculative tool.' Massive funds have flowed in for short-term arbitrage, driving prices away from their value center and creating temporary bubbles — this is an undeniable fact. When market sentiment overheats and leverage spikes, local bubble bursts leading to price crashes do indeed occur frequently.
2. Lack of 'Physical Anchoring': Value Controversies from a Traditional Perspective
Traditional economics holds that asset value must rely on real credit (such as fiat currency relying on national credit) or actual utility (such as the industrial properties of gold). As a decentralized asset with 'no issuer and no entity endorsement,' Bitcoin's value completely depends on market consensus, leading many scholars to define it as a 'pure speculative bubble.' Especially under high regulatory pressure or tightening liquidity, consensus can easily weaken, exacerbating 'collapse fears.'
3. Technological Iteration and Replacement Risks: Potential Challenges for Long-Term Existence
Blockchain technology is evolving rapidly, from Ethereum's smart contracts to Solana's high-performance public chains, constantly redirecting funds to new tracks. If Bitcoin cannot continuously break through in scalability (such as Layer 2 upgrades) and ecological applications (such as the Ordinals protocol), it may face the risk of 'being replaced by new technologies,' which also becomes an important argument for the 'collapse theory.'
2. The Underlying Logic of Anti-Collapse: Why Can Bitcoin Survive Multiple Cycles?
1. Scarcity Mechanism: Immutable 'Digital Gold' Attribute
The total supply limit of 21 million Bitcoins is solidified through code, and there is no possibility of over-issuance. As of 2025, approximately 19.5 million have been mined, leaving only 1.5 million to be mined, with scarcity increasing over time. This 'deflationary attribute' makes it a tool against fiat currency inflation — against the backdrop of global central banks over-issuing currency, Bitcoin's 'store of value demand' continues to grow, which fundamentally distinguishes it from purely speculative bubble assets (such as tulips).
2. Decentralized Network: Indestructible 'Distributed Ledger'
The Bitcoin network is maintained by over 100,000 nodes globally, with no centralized institution that can control or shut it down. Even if a single country bans it, the network can still operate normally in other regions. After China first banned mining in 2013 and comprehensively cleared mining sites in 2021, Bitcoin's hash rate only briefly declined before shifting to other regions globally, with no fundamental impact on network security. This 'censorship resistance' makes it difficult to completely eliminate, inherently providing resilience against collapse.
3. Ecological Moat and Institutional Entry: From Speculative Tool to Asset Allocation
In recent years, the ecological applications of Bitcoin have continued to expand: from the initial peer-to-peer transactions to the current ETF, staking finance, cross-border payments, and even being recognized as legal tender by some countries (like El Salvador). More critically, institutional funds are accelerating their entry — Grayscale's holdings exceed 600,000 BTC, the inflow of the U.S. spot ETF once broke $1 billion in a single day, and public companies and sovereign funds are incorporating it into their asset allocation. As 'institutional consensus' replaces 'retail speculation' as the dominant force, the price support for Bitcoin becomes increasingly solid.
3. Conclusion: There Are No Bubbles That Never Burst, but Bitcoin Is Unlikely to Become a 'Collapse-like Disappearance'
The existence of 'temporary bubbles' in Bitcoin is a fact — when prices deviate from fundamentals such as scarcity and ecological value, pushed higher by leverage and emotion, corrections or even crashes are inevitable. However, defining it as a 'pure bubble that will eventually collapse' overlooks its underlying technological value and the accumulation of global consensus.
In the future, Bitcoin may experience multiple bubble bursts (with prices halving or even plummeting by 70%), but the probability of a complete collapse (going to zero or losing circulation value) is extremely low. For investors, the focus should not be on 'whether it will collapse,' but on how to identify bubble cycles amidst fluctuations and position based on long-term value logic — after all, 14 years of history have proven: Bitcoin's resilience far exceeds the market's fear of 'bubbles.'
