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According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 89.1%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in October exceeds 60%. #美联储利率决议 #加密市场回调
#Hawk
This is a strong signal for the cryptocurrency market: a rate cut will reduce the cost of dollar liquidity and drive funds toward high-risk assets, with cryptocurrencies as highly elastic targets potentially seeing a price increase. Historical experience shows that even if the Federal Reserve does not act immediately, the expectation of a rate cut itself can stimulate the market—in March 2025, when rates were held steady but a rate cut signal was released, Bitcoin surged more than 3% in a single day.

Two points to note: first, the market may overdraw expectations in advance; for instance, after the first rate cut in 2019, Bitcoin retraced by 30%; second, there are internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, as two board members recently opposed maintaining interest rates, leaving the policy path uncertain. Currently, the dollar is depreciating against multiple currencies, combined with rate cut expectations, which may create a double benefit. It is recommended to pay attention to the September non-farm payroll and inflation data; if economic weakness continues, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in October may further increase, and the volatility in the cryptocurrency market may also amplify.