50‑Day EMA retested and reclaimed as support, mirroring a similar bounce in June.
This aligns with the neckline of an inverted head & shoulders (IH&S) chart formation.
A successful breakout-and-retest signals a potential continuation phase with a technical target around $148,250.
2. “Perfect Bottom” Trigger Range: $110K–$112K
Analyst BitBull argues that a dip into this zone would complete the IH&S setup, serving as a strong low-risk entry point before the next up leg.
3. On‑Chain Behavior: Whale Profit‑Taking Cooling Phases
CryptoQuant data shows this is the third wave of whale profit ‑ taking during the 2023–2025 bull run.
Historical precedent: these waves often precede 2–4 months of consolidation before breakout.
4. Macro & Market Tailwinds Supporting the Bull Case
BTC continues to hold above the $114K–$115K range.
Increased U.S. Federal Reserve liquidity (up ~$170B) and institutional ETF inflows have lent support.
Spot volumes near $7.6B/day on BTC exchanges also align with historical rebound zones.
5. Price Outlook: Conservative to Bold Targets
Scenario Timeline Target
Near‑term IH&S breakout Next few weeks ≈ $148K
Bullish continuation & TAM growth Late 2025 $150K–$189K range
Disclaimers: These are technical possibilities, not certainties. Factors such as global macro instability, on‑chain coordination failure, or regulatory delays could derail outcomes. Always do your own research.
✅ Bottom Line
What’s happening now looks like a textbook retracement—weak momentum cleanses speculative excess, permits renewed accumulation, and sets the stage for a potential breakout targeting $148K+.
If Bitcoin comfortably holds the $110K–$112K support band and reclaims the 50‑day EMA, the "perfect bottom" thesis gains traction. Otherwise, structural risk may linger.