A senior player focused on contract trading reveals high win rate methods for swing contracts in the cryptocurrency market:
1. Trend is king, follow the trend
• Trend judgment: Determine the overall direction of the market through trend lines and moving average systems. Only trade in line with the market trend: go long in an uptrend and short in a downtrend.
• Key support/resistance levels: Use historical trading volume zones, Bollinger Bands, and chip distribution tools to locate support and resistance levels, providing a basis for buy and sell decisions.
• Volume-price synchronization: When the price breaks through key resistance levels, pay attention to whether the trading volume increases to confirm the validity of the breakout and avoid false breakouts.
2. Technical indicator combination
• MA5/MA20 moving average crossover: Short-term moving average crossovers can be used to judge changes in short-term trends.
• MACD: Capture potential reversal signals by observing the contraction or expansion of the MACD histogram.
• RSI and KDJ: The RSI indicator helps identify overbought or oversold conditions. An RSI above 70 indicates an overbought market, which may be time to take profits; below 30 indicates an oversold market, which may present a buying opportunity. Combine with KDJ golden cross/dead cross to further validate signals.
• Bollinger Bands and ATR: When the Bollinger Bands narrow, it indicates that the market may experience a change. Combine with ATR to set dynamic take profit and stop loss levels, adapting to market volatility.
3. Three iron rules of trading
• Stop loss: Each loss should not exceed 3% of the principal. When the price breaks a key support level, close the position immediately to avoid further losses.
• Dynamic take profit: Once profits exceed 15%, activate a trailing stop to ensure the breakeven point moves up with profits, ensuring that profits are not given back.
• Position control: Control the position of a single cryptocurrency to within 20%. Do not exceed 50% of the total position when building the first position, ensuring that a single failed trade does not affect overall capital.
4. Three elements for selecting targets
• Liquidity: Choose cryptocurrencies with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding 100 million USD to avoid slippage due to insufficient liquidity.
• Volatility: Cryptocurrencies with a volatility rate greater than 8% are usually more volatile and suitable for swing trading.
• Event-driven: Pay attention to significant events related to cryptocurrencies, such as mainnet launches, halving events, partnerships, etc., as these events may trigger significant price fluctuations.
5. Time cycle strategy
• Intraday swings: Use 15-minute candlestick charts as the main analysis tool, combined with 1-hour trend judgment to assess short-term fluctuations. Hold positions for no more than 6 hours, focusing on short-term opportunities.
• Overnight swings: Based on a 4-hour level operational strategy, the holding period is 1 to 3 days, filtering trading signals according to weekly trends.$BTC $ETH #以太坊十周年 #币安HODLer空投TREE #稳定币热潮