Attention! Recently, the market has been a bit off, Brother Te has gone through data and news, and found that Bitcoin may face a 'big test' in August-September! Historical patterns + sudden variables, a triple blow is approaching, and if retail investors do not prepare in advance, they might really get 'cut down to their last pair of shorts'!
One, policy 'stalled': the Federal Reserve is inactive, Trump's 'pie in the sky' is useless, and institutions are all watching!
Recently, after the Federal Reserve meeting, the market's hopes for interest rate cuts and liquidity are nowhere to be seen! Trump is shouting loudly, saying he wants to do a '5 trillion dollar debt expansion', and the national debt balance has jumped by 10%, but the money hasn’t flowed into the crypto circle at all! What’s more frustrating is that the SEC has hinted that it might approve the Ethereum ETF pledge, but the funding rate only rose to 15%, which is not even a fraction of what it was when the Bitcoin ETF was approved in 2024! The policy dividends are gone, institutions are just watching from the sidelines, and Bitcoin can only 'spin in place' in the short term, with no direction!
Two, geopolitical 'black swan': has Bitcoin's 'hedging' persona collapsed? Gold is the real big boss!
On August 1st, Bitcoin suddenly plummeted by 3%, with 180,000 people liquidated, losing 629 million dollars! Why? The Middle East is in conflict, and global risk assets are being sold off! But ironically, gold rose by 1.2% that day, reaching a new high! In the past, everyone praised Bitcoin as 'digital gold', but now when real conflict arises, gold is the hard currency, and Bitcoin is just a 'little brother'! The market is now asking: in the future, during chaotic times, who would still dare to trust 'air coins'?
Three, the 2.9 billion dollar 'time bomb': a wave of token unlocks is approaching, retail investors beware of being 'blown away'!
Policy and geopolitics are 'chronic poisons', while the token unlock in August is a 'nuclear bomb'! 2.99 billion dollars' worth of tokens are set to unlock, among which SOL will unlock 746 million, WLD will unlock 202 million, and ZRO is even worse with an unlock ratio of 23.13%! Once these tokens unlock, the circulating supply will skyrocket, and prices may 'halve' in no time! Even scarier, when retail investors see a certain coin plummet, they immediately panic sell their other holdings, leading to a market-wide stampede, and no one can escape!
Four, September 'bear market curse': historical patterns reappear, is Bitcoin going to cool down?
Brother Te looked through historical data, and September for Bitcoin is practically a 'disaster month'! In the past 11 years, 8 of the September months saw declines, with an average drop of 4.39%! Although the market has changed this year, the technical indicators have already formed a 'death cross'—the 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average for the first time since November 2024! Worse still, the holding cost line for short-term holders has already fallen below 110,000 dollars; if the price doesn't rise, this group can only sell at a loss, making matters worse!
Five, where are the opportunities? Brother Te teaches you 'survival in dire straits'!
Although the risks are high, there are also opportunities in the crisis! Remember these three tricks to ensure you survive August-September:
Keep an eye on Bitcoin ETF: if there is a net inflow of 500 million to 1.5 billion dollars in September, the market may rebound;
Watch the Federal Reserve's face: if they cut rates by more than 25 basis points, risk assets will celebrate;
Position for 'anti-unlock' coins: choose those with low unlock ratios and high institutional holdings, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, and avoid those 'unlock landmine' coins!
Finally, let me say something heartfelt: the crypto market in August-September is not a place for 'easy profits'; it is a battlefield of 'the weak are preyed upon by the strong'! No matter if you are a bull or a bear, don’t use too much leverage, and make sure to set stop losses! The intensity of this volatility might exceed your imagination!
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