Brothers, I'm here!
I just picked up the latest 1-hour K-line chart of ETH, and this trend made me frown. Let's not use those fancy terms, just say what's dry, and tell everyone how ETH may go next, and what to focus on!
1. Technical aspect: The pressure is high, and the key support is here!
The top is full of "ceilings" (heavy pressure): You have clearly marked on the chart. Starting from 3800, all the way down, 3750, 3650, 3633, 3600, 3554, 3535 This series are all "ceilings" that have been suffocating ETH recently! Especially the area from 3650 to 3633, like a large iron plate, has been wilting when it rebounded here several times recently. The current price is hovering around 3550, only one step away from the nearest 3535 pressure. Want to rush up? First, you have to overcome these obstacles one by one, which is not easy!
The "lifesaving straw" under your feet (key support): Looking down, 3500, 3450, 3400 These integer levels are psychological support levels. But the support level on the chart is 3353! This position is definitely a life-and-death line. Although it rose slightly on the weekend, it did not change the overall situation. If the support level of 3353 is effectively smashed through (the closing price is firmly below), then panic selling may come out, and the downward space will be opened up, heading straight for 3300 or even lower. Another support is near 3350, which further illustrates that this place must not be broken!
Current status: Overall, the one-hour chart of ETH is still running in a downward channel, with highs constantly moving down (3800 -> 3750 -> 3650?), and lows have not stabilized temporarily. If the bulls want to turn over, they must break through the strong pressure zone of 3650-3633 with volume to see a turnaround. Otherwise, it is a high probability event to oscillate between 3535-3650 or continue to test the support downwards.
To be honest, just looking at this one-hour chart, ETH now feels a bit "sickly". The bulls are weak, and each rebound is like "squeezing toothpaste". I am more inclined to believe that in the short term, it may continue to grind around 3500-3600, or even kick it down to test the core support area of 3350-3400. Whether it can hold up will determine whether it will rebound or continue to slide.
2. News: Which way is the wind blowing?
Just looking at the chart is not enough, we also have to see what wind is blowing outside:
The footsteps of the "whale" ETF? Although there is no definite news that it will be approved in the next few days, the market's expectations for the ETH spot ETF have been hanging. Any slight disturbance can make ETH take a rocket or jump off a cliff. This is the biggest potential catalyst, but currently it is "only hearing the sound of stairs, but no one is coming down."
Are Layer2s strong enough? The core of the ETH ecosystem is its pile of Layer2s (such as Arb, OP, Base, etc.). How have they been performing recently? Are there any new major projects launched or a surge in users? If Layer2s are lively, it is a real positive support for ETH. Conversely, if they also cool down, ETH will hardly be able to stay out of it.
Bitcoin's (BTC) face: According to the old rules of the currency circle, if Bitcoin sneezes, all the younger brothers catch a cold. If BTC can stabilize or even rush up, ETH can still drink some soup. If BTC can't even withstand the fall, ETH wants to rise against the trend? Difficult!
Macro "big water pipe": The nonsense of the old guys at the Federal Reserve about raising and lowering interest rates, and the cold and warmth of the global economy, will still affect the water level of the "small pond" of the currency circle. The overall environment is not particularly relaxed now, which is not very friendly to risk assets (including ETH).
3. How will the market go in the future? What does Miguel think?
Combining technology and news, Miguel believes that ETH in the short term (next 24-48 hours):
The main theme is shock and weakness. It is too difficult to rush up all at once, and the pressure above is too dense.
The key is to see if the 3350-3400 area can be defended to the death! This is the last line of defense for the bulls. If it is defended, they can still organize a rebound and try to touch 3600 or even 3650. Can't defend it? Then the next stop may have to look at 3200-3250.
Want to reverse the decline? Two conditions must be met: first, break through and stand firm at 3650 with volume, and second, come up with some substantial benefits. Otherwise, want a "V-shaped reversal"? Difficult!
Miguel's personal opinion:
My current strategy is to watch more and move less, especially not to buy the bottom easily. Wait for the price to either effectively break through 3650 to confirm the reversal, or there will be a clear signal of stabilizing at around 3350 before considering taking action is more stable. In this position now, it is easy to be "hung on the flagpole" if you go in.
Follow Miguel's homepage, tell me what you think of the current market? Let's chat in the comments section! Opportunities and risks coexist in the currency circle. Staying alert and finding the right time is the key.