I. July Price and Trend Review 📊
Bitcoin (BTC)
Up about +10% this month, briefly broke through $122,000 in mid-July, but then clearly retraced, ending the month around $118,500
Trading volume surged by about 18%, and the 30-day average true volatility rose to 65%, showing that capital pressure and short-term price volatility coexist
Ethereum (ETH)
Up as much as +53% in a single month, rising from about $3,300 to near a high of $3,940, ending the month at $3,780
ETH/BTC is relatively strong, and capital is rapidly rotating from BTC to ETH, with the ratio hitting recent highs
Market Capitalization and Altcoins
The entire crypto market capitalization broke through $3.94 trillion, up more than 14% month-on-month
XRP is up about 45%, SOL is up about 30%, and DOGE is up about 46% - the three together constitute the "real leader of this alt-season"
Bitcoin Dominance fell below 62%, implying that 75% of mainstream coins have begun to significantly outperform BTC
II. Technical Dynamic Review
III. Policy and Regulatory Trends Review
US momentum continues to build 🌎
The GENIUS Act (7.17) has been passed by the House of Representatives and will incorporate the stablecoin system into CFTC supervision, marking the formation of a regulatory framework. The industry generally cheers
Project Crypto (SEC outline) was released on 7.31, proposing to set clear testing standards to distinguish between payment coins, security tokens and utility tokens, and proposing a tiered disclosure system and innovation exemption
The US government is releasing a clear preference: regulation is shifting from "strict control" to "compatibility and co-prosperity", eliminating uncertainty and helping traditional finance accelerate its embrace of crypto assets
European Attitude Tends to Be Tight
ESMA has repeatedly warned CASPs (crypto service providers) against misleading customers, requiring them to operate in accordance with MiCA licenses to prevent institutions from abusing their "regulated" status
ECB advisors publish blog post warning that the prevalence of dollar stablecoins in Europe could weaken the autonomy of the ECB, urging to speed up the landing of the digital euro to prevent regulatory arbitrage and financial dependence
IV. Analysis of Fund Flow and Institutional Attitude
Record ETF inflows in July: Net inflows into crypto ETFs were approximately $12.8 billion in July, of which ETH ETFs accounted for approximately $5.43 billion and BTC ETFs accounted for approximately $6.0 billion, revealing a huge institutional preference for ETH to dominate
CoinShares data: ETH inflows are stronger than BTC, more than 2 times that of BTC; altcoins such as SOL, XRP, and SUI have also attracted tens of millions of dollars in attention
Risk appetite continues: Although risk aversion has risen slightly before the Fed's decision, the overall is still in a low-volatility, high-risk appetite cycle, which is suitable for ETFs and leveraged funds to enter
VC investment: Overall down 22% in Q2, but large blockchain projects and Layer-1/2 projects still have capital injection, and the market signal is both stable and dispersed
V. August Full View Outlook: Trend Prediction + Overall Logic Integration
① Macro Policy Environment and System Expansion
If the GENIUS Act and related bills are successfully passed by the Senate and signed into effect between August and September; the rules issued by the project, such as the interpretation details of Project Crypto, will be gradually revealed in the second half of the year - which will undoubtedly provide a clear direction for the market and enhance institutional confidence.
The Fed is expected to maintain a "loose alert" state. If inflation data falls back in August and PCE/Retail Sales are within expectations, the market may further relax its risk appetite.
The Eurozone's dynamics still need to be paid attention to: If the ECB accelerates the landing of the digital euro and the regulation of crypto services is enhanced, some EURO stablecoins and traditional financial platforms may be suppressed.
② Technical Preview Rhythm
BTC: If it fails to break through $122K near the end of the month or funds continue to decline, it may return to the support platform of $114K–$115K; but once it breaks through the Fibonacci 1.618 level, the “bullish first stage” in July and August may continue to a new ATH.
ETH: If it stays above $3,500 and ETF trading is launched at the same time, the rebound target points to $4,000–$4,100; if it falls below the current support area, consider stop loss or stage retracement.
Altcoin wave: There has been a huge increase (such as XRP, SOL, DOGE), and in the short term, we still look at the support of funds; but if there are chain bursts or negative news, it may cause a 10–20% retracement. The technical support levels are $160 for SOL, $3 for XRP, and $0.20 for DOGE, respectively.
③ Fund-side Rhythm Deduction
If ETH ETF trading starts in late July and liquidity is accelerated, ETH is expected to continue to attract net institutional buying; BTC ETFs may also receive amplified support.
The rapidly growing ETF behavior may form structural fluctuations - the inflow wave drives short-cycle retracements and accelerates funds to altcoins; after clearing, it cuts into the main currencies.
If there are sharp fluctuations in Sino-US relations, the US dollar index, and bond yields, it may turn to safe-haven assets (such as gold and bonds), dragging down or cutting off the rising cycle of the crypto market.
VI. Key Currency Outlook: Trend Prediction and Key Operation Nodes
Summary Logic + Operation Suggestions 🎙
Structurally locked: ETH became the core of fund flow in July; the policy side released signals to support "legalization + transparency"; ETF inflows provided hard capital impetus for mainstream currencies; the decline in BTC dominance in the market structure means that altcoins have greater flexibility.
Time judgment: The window for policy dividends and ETF implementation is open, but it still depends on whether the Senate and regulatory specific operating rules are implemented as scheduled. If the technical trend retraces in advance, it may be a signal that "institutional chips are locked at a high level before the policy is realized."
Operation Suggestions (6–12 Month Cycle)
Conservative: Use BTC as the core of your allocation, deploy in batches in the $114K-116K range, set a stop loss below $110K.
Investors: Focus on ETH and high-quality Layer-1 (such as SOL), access them in batches in their support area of $3.5K-3.6K, and the position control is recommended to be 10–20% of the total assets.
Aggressive short-term players: You can track on-chain capital flows (ETF inflows, DeFi TVL, liquidation windows), indicator turning points (RSI overbought, trading volume breakthroughs) to buy low and sell high, and avoid chasing highs and killing lows.
Off-chain docking: Pay attention to whether ETFs such as BlackRock and Fidelity have started trading, whether DeFi platforms have started staking rewards, and whether Tokenized stock issuance is used for the ETH ecosystem, which will continue to drive ETH to accelerate upward.
Conclusion
The prominent ETH lead in July reflects the strong synergy of "ETF landing + project financing + policy catalysis"; although BTC is strong, it has become "dominant but not the protagonist"; although altcoins have amazing gains, the operating risk has increased. Entering August, the key turning points in the market will fall on US policy decisions, whether ETF transactions are triggered, and the actual output of DeFi and Tokenization. It is recommended that all KOLs and fans closely monitor the technical critical areas, on-chain capital swing indicators and regulatory dynamics - so as to "see the direction clearly, follow the rhythm, and strictly control risks".
