Ripple has witnessed a sharp decline in recent days as Bitcoin (BTC) was forced to retreat from the 119,800 USD mark. Since Monday, July 28, BTC has dropped 5%, while XRP has decreased by as much as 13.6%.
One of the concerning signals is XRP losing the important psychological level of 3 USD — which was a strong support in early July and has now turned into a new resistance zone. Breaking back above this level will not be easy, as selling pressure and profit-taking from above are still weighing heavily.
The Downtrend Has Not Stopped Yet
Technical analysis on the 12-hour timeframe shows that the short-term recovery potential is quite low. The A/D line is gradually declining, reflecting a significant increase in selling volume over the past week, while the Awesome Oscillator indicator continues to lean towards the bears.
The DMI indicator further reinforces this trend: -DI and ADX are both above the 20 threshold, confirming that the market is still in a strong downtrend. In this context, XRP may continue to adjust before buyers return to the market.
An important price level is 2.6 USD — where it coincides with the Fair Value Gap and the peak of the old accumulation zone on the daily chart. This could be a potential short-term target in the downward trend.
Will XRP Break Below 2.6 USD?
On-chain data shows that selling pressure is still present. The amount of XRP transferred to exchanges peaked on July 23 — a sign of significant profit-taking activity. The percentage of supply in profit exceeds 90%, indicating that many holders have taken the opportunity to sell.
Although the net flow to exchanges has eased, it remains positive, suggesting that a selling sentiment still exists. However, the greatest pressure may have passed.
Valuation Shows There Is Still Room for Growth
The MVRV Z-Score — a tool for measuring valuation against historical fair value — remains low compared to previous peaks, even after XRP surpassed the 3 USD mark in July. This indicates that the asset is not yet overvalued, opening up opportunities for long-term growth.
If XRP truly returns to the 2.6 USD range, this could be an attractive entry point for long-term investors.