Summary$BTC
Bitcoin is facing mixed signals: positive technical patterns and institutional accumulation conflict with profit-taking and geopolitical mining risks.
Technical analysis indicates a price target of $148,000 if the $110,000 support holds.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is pushing to update cryptocurrency regulations based on Trump's plan.
Sanctioned countries are increasing mining operations to circumvent financial restrictions.
Detailed analysis
1. Technical developments
Bitcoin reclaimed its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $113,800 on August 3 after a 7.8% decline in three weeks. Analysts are highlighting an "inverted head and shoulders" pattern targeting $148,000 if the price holds the $113,000 support level (BitBull).
Network data shows three major sell-offs by whales since 2024:
After the launch of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in March 2024
After the price hike linked to the Trump election in late 2024
In July 2025, an old whale sold 80,000 Bitcoin after the price broke through $120,000.
Historically, these events have been followed by periods of stability ranging from 2 to 4 months before new highs are achieved (CryptoQuant).
2. Regulatory and external factors
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) launched the "Crypto Sprint" initiative on August 1 to implement Trump's digital asset strategy, focusing on tokenized markets and repealing outdated guidelines. This is in line with the Genius Act of July 2025, which requires stablecoin reserves to be held at a 1:1 ratio (Cointribune).
Meanwhile, Iran and Russia are expanding state-backed mining operations to circumvent sanctions, contributing to a surge in hash rates. The Central Bank of Iran now requires miners to sell Bitcoin directly (Frank Holmes/HIVE).
3. Market indicators
Price: $113,798 (-4.5% over the week)
Liquidity: Spot trading volume fell 54% week-on-week to $314 billion
Sentiment: The Fear and Greed Index is at 48 (Neutral) compared to 64 (Greed) last week.
Institutions like Strategy have accumulated 50% of their Bitcoin holdings since mid-2024, mirroring MicroStrategy's (Cointelegraph) treasury strategy.
Conclusion
Bitcoin's trajectory hinges on maintaining support at $110,000 amid whale profit-taking and growing regulatory support. Will ETF inflows rebound if the CFTC's framework stabilizes and institutional participation increases?
