$CFX The Conflux (CFX) currency saw a 14% rise over the weekend (August 2-4, 2025) driven by speculation related to China, but analysts warn of weak technical fundamentals on the network and centralization risks despite the optimistic narratives.
Price increase of 190% over 30 days supported by optimism around a Chinese stablecoin and positive regulations.
The hard upgrade v3.0 (September 1) caused volatility: a 10% price drop and liquidations worth $1.7 million.
Network activity is stable: 80% of gas consumption is concentrated in just 3 accounts compared to less than 10% in the Ethereum network.
In-depth Look
1. Market Indicators and Price Drivers
The price of CFX reached $0.212 (+191% over 30 days) as of August 4, driven by rumors of Beijing's rapprochement with digital assets and Conflux's role as the first public blockchain compliant with Chinese laws (CoinDesk). However:
Technical warnings: A symmetrical triangle pattern indicates potential volatility, with resistance at $0.23–0.25 (AMBCrypto).
Derivatives activity: Long liquidations worth $1.7 million on August 3 after announcing the v3.0 upgrade, although accumulation of coins in private wallets worth $14.23 million suggests buying on dips.
2. Technical Developments
The hard upgrade v3.0 (scheduled for September 1) aims to improve compatibility with Ethereum and compliance rules based on Proof of Stake (PoS). Key feedback:
Bearish signals: MACD 'death' cross and Parabolic SAR points indicate short-term downside risks.
Optimistic points: Developers expect to integrate AI and increase transaction speed to 15,000 TPS after the upgrade, aligning with China's initiatives in the digital Silk Road.
3. Fundamental Concerns
Despite the price increase, network indicators are lagging:
Daily transactions are below the averages of 2022.
Centralization risks: Three accounts control 80% of gas consumption on the network (CoinDesk).
Total value locked (TVL) is stable at $16.72 million according to data from July 31.
Summary
The rise of CFX is based on the Chinese narrative and upgrade enthusiasm, but weak technical fundamentals and centralization risks pose challenges. Monitoring: Launch of v3.0 in September and whether the adoption of the AxCNH stablecoin will materialize.
Will Conflux be able to keep up its network activity with the momentum of speculation?
