7.28-8.3 Bitcoin Auntie Weekly Summary
This week, Bitcoin showed a unidirectional downward trend, continuously under pressure since the key level of 119812 at the beginning of the week, currently oscillating and building a bottom in the 112000 range, with a weekly low touching 111850. This round of decline is driven by dual macro shocks:
1. U.S. employment data significantly deteriorated: July non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs (expected 110,000), and the data for the previous two months was revised down by 258,000, exacerbating recession expectations;
2. Policy risk escalated: The Trump administration announced the implementation of a 10%-41% import tariff starting August 7, triggering global trade friction panic and spreading risk-averse sentiment in risk assets;
From a technical perspective, the bearish dominant pattern is confirmed, with prices breaking the psychological support level of 114000 and continuously operating below the EMA (5,10,30) moving averages, forming a typical bearish arrangement. Large-scale liquidation of leveraged long positions: Over $700 million in liquidations occurred across the network within 24 hours, with long positions accounting for 90%, reflecting continuous pressure on bottom-fishing funds. The current market is highly sensitive to macro events; if the 111000 support fails or if there are further uncertainties in policy, it could trigger a liquidation panic in long positions. It is advised to maintain a defensive strategy until the technical structure and macro risks become clearer.
On Monday, the layout for Bitcoin with three longs captured a total of 2110 points, while Ethereum with two longs captured a total of 153 points.
On Tuesday, the layout for Bitcoin with two longs and one short captured a total of 2792 points, while Ethereum with two longs and one short captured a total of 201 points.
On Wednesday, the layout for Bitcoin with two longs and one short captured a total of 1607 points, while Ethereum with one short and two longs captured a total of 114 points.
On Thursday, the layout for Bitcoin with one long and two shorts captured a total of 5140 points, while Ethereum with one short captured a total of 110 points.
On Friday, the layout for Bitcoin with one long and two shorts captured a total of 4355 points, while Ethereum with one long and two shorts captured a total of 222 points.
On Saturday, the layout for Bitcoin with one short captured a total of 1172 points, while Ethereum with three shorts captured a total of 211 points.
Although this week's market showed pressure and volatility, after necessary corrections to the technical indicators, it currently shows initial signs of stabilization. The slope of the key moving average system is flattening, and the 111000-113500 range is forming a balance platform between bulls and bears. The shrinking volume reflects a gradual release of selling pressure, laying the foundation for market momentum. With policy variables turning positively driven, and the implementation of Trump's tariff policy on August 7, the marginal uncertainty risk is decreasing. Combined with solid expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September (CME probability remains above 80%), the improving expectations for dollar liquidity and the reconstruction of risk asset valuations are forming a new consensus. This dual factor is expected to become the core engine for sentiment recovery next week.