The Bitcoin market has recently shown a clear emotional divergence. By observing the changes in Bitcoin balances across different exchanges and the characteristics of the dominant trading groups, one can gain insight into the situation.
From July 10 to August 3, the BTC balance on the Binance exchange increased by 26,000 coins, which constitutes potential selling pressure in the market. Since internal trading information from Binance cannot be directly obtained, as long as these incoming BTC are not withdrawn and the balance does not drop to previous lows, the market will continue to face potential selling pressure.
Data indicates that players with single transaction amounts between 1 million and 10 million dollars are the main force driving this risk, and their inflow behavior suggests that they may be planning or have already implemented selling operations.
The situation on Coinbase is completely opposite. During the same period, the BTC balance on this platform decreased by 45,000 coins, indicating significant potential purchasing demand in the market. This phenomenon suggests that U.S. players still have high enthusiasm for the current BTC price and are continuously withdrawing assets from the exchange. The reasons behind this may come from within the market, such as large players transferring coins to personal wallets after accumulating enough chips on CEX; or from outside the market, for example, market makers completing trades through OTC and transferring BTC out of the exchange to balance their positions.
Regardless of the reasons, the continuous release of potential purchasing power is an undeniable fact, and the behavior is primarily driven by 'super whales' with single transaction amounts no less than 10 million dollars.
Overall, the current market differentiation is mainly reflected in two aspects: regionally, U.S. players are actively increasing their Bitcoin holdings, while players outside the U.S. are seeking to exit to avoid risks; in terms of groups, high-net-worth individuals with assets exceeding 1 million dollars are the main source of selling pressure, while institutional players with assets exceeding 10 million dollars are not affected by short-term price fluctuations and continue to buy chips. This differentiation trend deserves the attention of market participants.
