[Market Element Brief Review]

Yesterday, BTC gradually trended downwards, touching around 119,000, while ETH declined to around 3,350. They are now quoted at approximately 113,400 and 3,445, respectively. From a dual perspective, both hour charts are forming a trend-driven central acceleration downward, with limited breakout space, showing a double bottom trend on the hourly chart, but the larger direction has not changed. A short-term upward correction rhythm is needed.

A panic sell-off in cryptocurrencies occurred after Trump issued nuclear threats.

According to Friday's news, U.S. President Trump ordered U.S. nuclear submarines to be dispatched after former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev rejected Trump's 10-day request to end the Ukraine conflict. Trump wrote that 'words are very important but often lead to unexpected consequences.' This move has prompted traders to adopt a cautious sentiment, showing how a single post can shake global markets.

As submarines approach tense areas, investors are closely monitoring this news. Risk assets not only remain unaffected but have significantly declined. Cryptocurrencies and tech stocks have fallen in tandem, highlighting how tightly these markets are interconnected during significant political storms. Bitcoin dropped to around $119,000, and ETH fell to about $3,350, marking the lowest levels in weeks. As traders pulled back from leveraged bets, the top cryptocurrencies followed tech stocks downward. The monthly futures premium narrowed to around 6%, indicating a decrease in investors willing to hold high-risk trades.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler resigned on Friday, leaving nearly 18 months early, with her term cut short. She plans to return to Georgetown University this fall. Kugler previously advocated for maintaining stable interest rates until inflation data becomes clearer. After her departure, Trump may choose a new governor who might support his calls for immediate rate cuts.

Market panic is not limited to cryptocurrencies; gold prices hover around $3,360 per ounce, but there hasn't been a massive rush to safe-haven assets. Instead, funds are flowing into cash and short-term U.S. Treasuries. Reports indicate that as global tensions rise and doubts about economic data increase, traders are shifting to low-risk options.

Despite the recent decline in cryptocurrencies, the prices of Bitcoin and ETH remain well above January levels, only 7% lower than the July peak of $123,182. Currently, investors are closely watching every tweet and military action for new signs of significant market volatility.

The recent slump in the cryptocurrency market may be triggered by various factors related to macro political and economic issues.

[BTC 1 Hour]

BTC is currently trading near the support level of a downward trajectory that has turned into a resistance zone. From the MA technical indicators, the MA shows a bearish oscillation correction, synchronously located near the shoulder position under the large bearish candle and near the correction break point. Looking at the candlestick pattern, the current candlestick structure shows a parallel top near the shoulder position. In terms of trend line cycles, the market is under pressure from a descending triangle, and the candlestick structure shows a significant downward correction forming a dual support, indicating that the bulls are struggling. The price is undergoing corrections, so today's correction aims for 112,500/112,500 as support to gauge the correction space. Therefore, in short-term participation:

1. Look for an upward correction near 1,113,000/1,125,00, with the watershed slightly magnified at the 1,117,00 level, aiming for the 1,148,00—1,160,00—1,180,00 range;

2. If a large bullish candlestick breaks 114,500, look for a pullback near 113,500/113,000 to continue the upward movement, with regional corrections aiming for new heights.

3. Initially, look for 115,500/116,000 nearby, and watch for a downward correction to 112,500—110,500—106,000.

Stay updated with real-time community dynamics!

[ETH 1 Hour]

Yesterday, ETH and BTC generally moved in sync, with ETH showing a more pronounced decline relative to BTC: the hourly chart indicates an adjustment towards a downward central correction structure, currently showing a double bottom formation. The overall preliminary range aligns with expectations, but the candlestick structure indicates a weak correction, with price coordination lacking, unable to break through with a large candlestick. From the MA technical indicators, the MAs have formed a bearish suppression pattern, but from a structural matching perspective, the reference role of the MA needs correction. In terms of volume, there has been a downward volume increase, indicating a replacement of positions within the price range. From the perspective of a parallel range, the market is operating within a parallel oscillation range. In terms of trend lines, the market currently remains under pressure. Overall, there is an adjustment in short-term participation:

1. Look for a short-term upward correction near 3,400/3,375, targeting 3,645.

2. Initially, look for a downward correction near 3,600/3,620, with the watershed at the 3,635 level.

3. If the market exhibits a strong bullish candlestick upward to 3,635, look for a pullback to 3,580/3,600 to go long, targeting near 3,720.

4. Bi-directional breakout, pull back with the trend.

If holding other cryptocurrencies, real-time communication can be done in the community!

Disclaimer: Investment carries risks, and one should be cautious when entering the market; the above views are personal opinions for reference only. Invest and trade based on the content of these opinions at your own risk.