$BTC đ§ Bearish Arthur Hayes Warns Bitcoin Could Slide Toward $100K
Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX coâfounder and current Maelstrom Fund CIO, cautions that mounting macroeconomic headwinds may push Bitcoin down to the $100,000 level in the near term (TradingView).
Key Drivers Behind Hayesâ Bearish Forecast:
Weak U.S. jobs data â July NonâFarm Payrolls showed just 73,000 new jobs added, signaling economic fragility and fueling tariff fears.
Sluggish credit growth â Major economies are failing to generate enough credit to support nominal GDP growth, limiting the liquidity that supports risk assets (TradingView).
Asset Moves That Reinforce the Warning:
Hayes liquidated over $13M in crypto holdings: approximately $8.32M in ETH, $4.62M in ENA (Ethena), and $414K in PEPE, now holding most assets in stablecoins (USDC) (TradingView).
Reflecting caution, he stated on X:
âSo $BTC tests $100K, $ETH tests $3K ⊠No major economy is creating enough credit fast enough to boost nominal GDPâ (Brave New Coin).
How Much Could Bitcoin Drop?
Bitcoin has already dipped more than 7.7% from its recent $123K high. A drop to $100K would represent roughly an 18â19% correction (TradingView).
Ethereum may also retrace toward $3,000 amid broader market risk-off sentiment.
Still Bullish on the Long Term?
Despite short-term caution, Hayes remains long-term bullish on Bitcoin, pointing to fiscal liquidity flows and eventual reflation dynamics.
Some analysts argue that Bitcoin volatility has moderated since BlackRockâs spot Bitcoin ETF filing in midâ2023, with fewer extreme drawdowns (TradingView, Yahoo Finance).
đ Bottom Line
Hayes is sounding the alarm on medium-term downside risk fueled by weakening macro fundamentalsâtariffs, soft job numbers, and stagnant credit growth. His crypto portfolio moves and public messaging suggest vigilance is warranted. That said, his continued long-term confidence reflects belief that fiscal-driven liquidity may eventually reignite cryptoâs bullish trajectory.
