📈 BTC Q3 Status and Q4 Historical Patterns: Bull Market Accumulation or Adjustment Signal?

🔍 Current Q3 Performance: BTC Steady, Altcoins Stealing the Show

BTC Q3 So Far: Slight Increase (+5%~10%), but Volatility has Dropped to Yearly Low

Altcoin Performance: Some sectors (like AI, RWA, Meme) have surged in rotation, Short-term Fund Diversion

On-chain Data: Long-term Holders (LTH) are still accumulating, Short-term Supply Decreasing

Exchange Reserves Continuing to Decline, Selling Pressure Limited

📌 Key Conclusions:

✅ BTC Entering "Silent Accumulation Period" — Low Volatility Often Indicates Major Trends Brewing

⚠️ Altcoin Frenzy Unsustainable — If BTC Suddenly Starts, Funds will Quickly Return

📅 Historical Data: Astonishing Correlation Between Q3 and Q4 See Chart

📊 Pattern Summary:

In the past 6 Green Q3s, 5 Q4s Continued to Rise (Probability 83%)

Average Q4 Increase: +100%+ (October-November is the Explosion Window)

Exceptional Year (2019): Macroeconomic Recession + Miner Sell-off Caused Divergence

🚀 Q4 Bull Market Script: Three Major Catalysts

1️⃣ Spot ETF Fund Inflows Accelerating

Currently Daily Average Net Inflow $200M+, If Institutional Allocation Trends Continue, Will Drive Liquidity Bull Market

2️⃣ Federal Reserve Policy Shift

Expectations for Interest Rate Cuts from September to December Rising, Risk Assets (BTC) Benefit

3️⃣ Historical Cycle Resonance

Typically, Main Uptrend Occurs 6-8 Months After Halving (Corresponding to 2024 Q4)