A bull market without interest rate cuts
Could be the most dangerous
I came across a news article this morning
Morgan Stanley reiterated that the bullish scenario for the S&P 500 index
is being consolidated with a target of 7200 points
I mentioned about half a month ago
that ETH and Bitcoin were about to peak
The expectations for interest rate cuts have already been reflected in the prices
The consensus during each historical peak of the S&P is strikingly similar
Many believe the real bull market hasn't started yet
From Bitcoin's rise from 20,000 to now 120,000, it's already six times
Many are fantasizing that Bitcoin could reach 200,000
This round of interest rate cuts will lead to excessive liquidity
It's overly optimistic
I'm not looking at the crypto space here
Just looking at the risks in the US stock market
At the end of 1999, no one questioned the valuation of the internet
In mid-2007, hardly anyone took the subprime mortgage crisis seriously
In early 2021, even retail investors were leveraging to bet on Web3 and the metaverse
Now the valuation and concentration of the AI sector in the US stock market are even higher than in 2021
You will find that the moment the bubble truly expands
The market is not frenzied, but collectively rational.
Everyone can articulate logic, can justify themselves
But no one realizes that consensus is overflowing
Returning to the crypto space, many will think there will be a bull market after interest rate cuts
I don’t believe so. I still think Bitcoin has a cyclical theory
A 4-year cycle of repair, adjustment, and impact, this is Bitcoin's rhythm
Now everyone believes Ethereum will reach 10,000 dollars
All kinds of assets in the US stock market are crazily buying cryptocurrencies
Even so, Ethereum still hasn't reached its previous high
So I think when everyone stands together believing that the bull market and interest rate cuts have begun
The bull market will have no counterparty and will not appear
So, brothers
Control your risk and never maximize your profits
The current crypto space is like the gold rush in San Francisco
Many are buying various assets hoping to get rich overnight
In fact, those selling shovels end up making the money
What does it mean to sell shovels?
Airdrop chasers, token issuers, project shares
And you might end up losing everything