99% of people simply believe: Federal Reserve interest rate cuts = bull market in cryptocurrency

This is very wrong

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, the recent 4 bull markets

① In 2017, BTC soared to 19800, while the Federal Reserve was in a rate hike cycle of 1.25%-1.50%

② In November 2021, BTC reached a peak of 69000, with interest rates close to 0 for a long time, and the rate cuts had already begun in March 2020

③ In 2023, during the rebound to 73000, it was a rate hike cycle

④ In 2024, during the range of 74000-123000, interest rates remained unchanged

From a results-oriented perspective, it can be summarized as:

Expectations of interest rate cuts are easier to drive up

Rate cuts do not necessarily drive up

Even if it drives up, it may not be immediate

It is easier to drive up when interest rates are stable, whether at high or low levels

What is the reason?

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1. From the perspective of the cryptocurrency market - the core engine of the bull market is harmed by the explosion of applications, such as Ethereum in 2017, NFT gamefi, MicroStrategy entering the market in 2021, and ETF expectations

2. Interest rate cuts are the result of a deteriorating economy - the goal is to lower debt costs, this part is difficult to translate into cryptocurrency investments, but existing funds may become conservative due to declining returns

Therefore, the bull market in cryptocurrency generally occurs before interest rate cuts arrive, or waits for a stable phase after rate cuts, essentially waiting for expectations.