The probability of a rate cut in September has increased, long positions can be safeguarded with a stop loss! 8.3 Bitcoin strategy

As the non-farm payroll data is released this week, the U.S. Treasury market has just undergone a repricing: previously, investors had largely ruled out the possibility of a rate cut and reacted strongly to Fed Chairman Powell's hawkish remarks on Wednesday. However, after the employment data was released, the market quickly shifted, and front-end yields fell sharply, reflecting that investors are re-embracing rate cut expectations, raising the anticipated rate cut magnitude for the next 12 months from less than 100 basis points prior to the employment data to about 114 basis points. The probability of a rate cut in September has rebounded to 64%, compared to less than 40% before. Next, the inflation data for July and August will have a more critical impact on the Fed's decisions and the direction of the bond market. In simple terms, the probability of a rate cut in September has greatly increased! The long positions suggested yesterday can be secured with a stop loss!

From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows six consecutive bearish candles, with the price breaking below the lower Bollinger band, the KDJ lines forming a death cross downwards, although the fast line is slowing down, the MACD lines have crossed downwards, and trading volume has significantly increased; the larger trend still looks bearish, but the short-term indicators have a demand for rebound correction, so initially, we look for a rebound today! The resistance levels to watch above are 114000, 115000, 116000, 117000, 1189000, and 119500, while the support levels to watch below are 111800, 111200, and the 110000 mark.

8.3 Bitcoin operating strategy: Aggressive traders can short at the rebound levels of 115000-115500, while conservative traders can enter at 116000-116500, with a stop loss above 117000, targeting around 114000-113500-113000, and if broken, look at around 112600-112000, continue to break and move the stop loss based on the situation!

8.3 Ethereum operating strategy: Aggressive traders can short at the rebound levels of 3550-3580, while conservative traders can enter at 3600-3630, with a stop loss near 3680, targeting around 3500-3450-3400, and if broken, look at around 3350, continue to break and move the stop loss based on the situation!

Long position strategy: For Bitcoin, buy one lot on the pullback at 112000-112500, with a stop loss around 111100, targeting around 113500-114000-114500, and if broken, move the stop loss based on the situation!

For Ethereum, buy one lot on the pullback at 3350-3400, with a stop loss around 3320, targeting around 3450-3500-3530-3550, and if broken, move the stop loss based on the situation!

After recent sharp declines, there will always be capital inflows betting on the bulls, and with the data performance being poor, the probability of a rate cut in September has increased. So everyone should not chase shorts at low levels, but instead enter in batches based on resistance levels, and do not hold positions unnecessarily!