Right now, the U.S. economy shows us two opposing faces: one concerning and the other full of optimism.
And the most unsettling thing is that one of the two will have to give in soon.
❌ Negative signal: consumption is cooling
📉 Private spending, a key driver of the U.S. economy, is slowing sharply in 2025:
🔸 Consumption grew by only +1.4% annualized in the second quarter
🔸 Below the +1.5% expected and the weakest growth since the pandemic of 2020
🔸 Final sales to consumers rose only +1.2%, their lowest point since 2022
🔸 This pressures the Fed to cut interest rates soon
The slowdown is clear. The average citizen's wallet is tightening, and that could hinder global growth if no measures are taken.
✅ Positive signal: stock market euphoria
📈 But at the same time, optimism on Wall Street is at one of its highest points in decades:
🔹 47.9% of consumers believe that stocks will rise in the next 12 months
🔹 It is one of the highest levels of optimism in history
🔹 It even surpasses the previous peak before the dot-com bubble of the year 2000
What's the reason? Many bet that rate cuts are coming... and that this will boost the markets.
🎯 Two opposing worlds: Who will win?
📍While the real economy cools down, the financial market heats up.
This cannot last long: one of these two realities will have to adjust.
Are the markets anticipating a real recovery?
Or are we facing another bubble fueled by expectations?
🧠 Key for crypto investors
A rate cut could be the catalyst that triggers risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
But be careful: if the economy enters a real recession, fear could hit the entire market.
Stay alert. The coming weeks will be decisive. 🧭
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