$BNB

【Non-farm payrolls miss expectations, cryptocurrency and U.S. stocks decline in tandem】U.S. non-farm payroll data missed expectations, with the Nasdaq falling nearly 2 points in a single day, and the cryptocurrency market following suit.

If the U.S. enters a recessionary period, looking back to 2021, both the Nasdaq and Bitcoin (including BNB) could plummet by more than 50%. Where does the U.S. stand at this moment?

【Conclusion】There is currently no need to panic; the unemployment rate, which reflects relative strength and weakness, remains between 4-4.2%, indicating weak supply and demand in the labor market. Hourly wage growth is still around 4%, suggesting a cooling labor market but still within a controllable range. During the pandemic, the U.S. government issued a large amount of money and maintained a high government deficit, and the residents' balance sheets remain healthy, making the probability of a significant recession low. Under baseline conditions, the labor market, like the U.S. economy, is still in a soft landing phase, with the market trading on whether the downward slope is steep or flat.

【Data to watch for】The services PMI on August 5, CPI on the 12th, retail sales on the 15th, Jackson Hole later in the month, non-farm payrolls on September 5, QCEW on the 9th, and CPI on the 11th could all add variables to the September FOMC decision. Compared to guessing the direction, the amplification of volatility may be a more certain event.