Trump angrily denounced the non-farm payroll figures as "fabricated," and the market suddenly shifted.
Xiao Yu immediately saw through this "plunge" as the result of political warfare ripping apart market expectations. The US Department of Labor quietly revised down its job figures by 818,000, effectively erasing 30% of nearly a year's new jobs. This was a bombshell before the election. Trump publicly declared, "It's more fake than a Hollywood script!" US stocks plunged in late trading, and BTC plummeted $1,500 overnight, breaking through the crucial $113,000 level. Over $3 billion in losses were liquidated, and market confidence collapsed.
This wasn't just a simple technical correction; it was a moment when the crypto market was precisely exploited by political maneuvering. When the "trust anchor" of the jobs data was shaken, the Federal Reserve's logic for rate cuts also began to falter. If the Fed became skeptical of the data and slowed the pace of rate cuts, and the US dollar rebounded strongly, Bitcoin would have little respite. The news that the government was preparing to liquidate over 60,000 Silk Road BTC further derailed the situation, triggering a wave of institutional sell-offs.
Bulls weren't completely desperate. Trump, while loudly supporting Bitcoin, is creating political chaos, and the market is constantly betting on whether he will incorporate BTC into national strategy. But at this moment, Xiao Yu is more concerned with the structure: the supply of long-term holders has fallen to a three-year low, indicating that old funds are withdrawing while new funds are not coming in. Technical indicators have all turned bearish, with the MACD indicator showing a widening green bar. Short-term support can only rely on the marginal effect of market panic.
Xiao Yu believes that the true bottom is not in the news, but in the Fed's words. If the expectation of a rate cut is completely overturned, $105,000 will be the starting point of the abyss. Conversely, if Trump dares to reveal his "Bitcoin reserves" trump card, it will be the clarion call for a second surge of market confidence. Now is not the time to chase long or short positions, but to see if you can hold your chips steady amidst the bloodbath and wait for the next definitive signal.
