The U.S. Federal Reserve maintains a stable interest rate of 4.25% – 4.5% despite increasing pressure to lower rates.
The Fed held rates steady for the fifth consecutive time, focusing on the CPI report and expectations of a rate cut at the FOMC meeting on 17/9/2025. The cryptocurrency market reacted strongly to the move and recent economic fluctuations.
MAIN CONTENT
The outlook for a U.S. rate cut has increased due to weaker-than-expected labor data and economic pressures.
The cryptocurrency market is negatively impacted by economic policies and geopolitical volatility.
CPI data is a key factor determining the Fed's next moves and the trends in the digital asset market.
What is the likelihood of a rate cut in the U.S.?
The likelihood of the Fed cutting rates in the 17/9/2025 meeting has risen to about 80%, from below 45% just a few days ago, thanks to the latest unfavorable employment data.
Data shows the unemployment rate has risen to 4.2%, while previous employment reports have been significantly revised downwards. This fuels expectations that the Fed may find it difficult to delay a rate cut any longer.
The support of 2 out of 12 FOMC members for a rate cut in the recent meeting also created a unique situation not seen in over 30 years.
Plenty can happen before the 17th September FOMC meeting, but it’s looking more and more likely we will get a rate cut to the 4 to 4.25 range, i.e. 25 bps cut.
Matthew Dixon, Cryptocurrency Analyst, August 2025
How does the cryptocurrency market react to economic volatility?
The new tax policy in the U.S. combined with the economic slowdown has put significant downward pressure on major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana.
Bitcoin fell 3% to $113,231, while Ether and Solana lost 6% and 5%, respectively. In 24 hours, the total liquidation value of BTC and ETH positions was about $228 million and $262 million, indicating significant liquidity pressure on investors.
The Fed's delay in cutting rates further increases market uncertainty.
How will CPI data influence the Fed's decision?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report ahead of the FOMC meeting is the last important data for the Fed to assess the inflation situation.
If CPI shows slowing inflation, the chances of a rate cut in September will be more firmly established.
If CPI slows down, expect a good rally and a confirmed rate cut in September.
Economist Cas Abbe, August 2025
How will a rate cut affect the cryptocurrency market?
A Fed rate cut could facilitate cryptocurrencies as lower rates decrease the attractiveness of fixed-income assets.
It encourages investors to seek higher-risk assets like cryptocurrencies and boosts liquidity through increased borrowing. Continuous easing policies may also lead to wider adoption of cryptocurrencies and improve the regulatory framework in the long term.
Frequently Asked Questions
How long has the Fed maintained the current interest rate?
The Fed has maintained rates at 4.25% – 4.5% for 5 consecutive meetings, from December 2024 until now.
What are the reasons behind the strong expectations for a rate cut?
Rising unemployment rates and downward adjusted employment figures have increased pressure on the Fed to cut rates.
Will a rate cut ensure the recovery of the cryptocurrency market?
Low interest rates encourage capital flow into cryptocurrencies but are still heavily dependent on other economic and policy factors.
What role does CPI data play in interest rate policy?
CPI is an important indicator reflecting inflation, directly affecting the Fed's interest rate adjustment decisions.
What has caused the recent price volatility in cryptocurrencies?
Economic stagnation, geopolitical tensions, and the Fed's interest rate policy are the main factors causing price volatility.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/fed-co-the-ha-lai-suat-thang-9-3/
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