In the winter of 2018, I squatted on the balcony smoking, the ashtray filled with cigarette butts. The mobile bank balance showed 203654.72 yuan - this was all the fortune I had left from a loss of 1 million, and it was also the last bottom line my wife left me. The note "Divorce if you touch the crypto circle again" was still pasted on the refrigerator, and the child's crying came from the living room. At that moment, I felt that life was like a K-line frozen by the bear market, and I couldn't see any hope of rebound.
Who would have thought that nine years later, this number would become 40 million. This is not a wealth-making myth, but a survival rule that has been painstakingly extracted by crushing 7 notebooks filled with liquidation records and reviewing them at countless three in the morning. What I want to talk about today is not how to get rich overnight, but how to use the blunt knife of MACD to cut a path to survival for yourself in the sword light and sword shadow of the crypto circle.
I. Dark Years: Three Bloody Lessons Bought with 800,000 Tuition Fees
When I rushed into the crypto circle with 1 million in 2015, I thought it was an ATM. It was only three years later that I realized it was a meat grinder.
1. Chasing highs and killing lows: Scorched in the flames of greed
In 2017, BTC rushed from $1,000 to $20,000, and I increased my position like a madman, even putting in the money I was going to use to change houses. At that time, I looked at the K-line and felt that "it could still rise", but I didn't realize that the MACD energy column had begun to shrink - that was the market quietly withdrawing its fire. When the crash came in 2018, I stubbornly held on to the fantasy of "running away after the rebound", and watched helplessly as the account balance dropped from 800,000 to 300,000, like being pressed in the water, without even the strength to struggle.
2. Contract gambling: Leverage is a poison that accelerates death
At the most crazy time, I opened 50 times leverage in the contract market, thinking that "I could get my money back in one go". As a result, there were three liquidations, each time in the self-comfort of "just a little bit and it will rebound", and I was completely zeroed by a pin. On the day of the last liquidation, I stood at the entrance of the exchange all night, looking at my shadow on the glass door, like a gambler who lost all his pants.
3. Emotional Out of Control: Let the family pay for my willfulness
When the losses were the most severe, I vented my anger on my family. My wife hid my bank card, so I smashed the cup; the child cried and wanted a hug, but I yelled at him "Don't bother me". During that time, the air in the house was cold, until one day I found that my wife had packed her luggage and left a note saying "Divorce if you touch the crypto circle again", I was like being splashed with ice water - it turned out that I was not only losing all my money, but also destroying the whole family.
Turning point: At the end of 2018, I transferred the last 200,000 to a new account and set three military rules for myself, written on a cigarette pack and carried with me:
Never be fully positioned, and the position of a single coin must never exceed 15%
Only do spot, and never touch contract leverage in this life
All transactions must wait for MACD to give a clear signal, even if you miss 100 opportunities
Now it seems that it was these three iron rules that pulled me back from the edge of the cliff.
II. The Five Core Logics of the MACD Warfare: Seeing through the market's trump card with indicators
Many people regard MACD as a fortune-telling tool, only looking at the golden cross and death cross. I only understood with 800,000 tuition fees: MACD is not a signal flare, but an electrocardiogram of the market, which can tell you where the funds are going and how much strength is left.
1. Trend Judge: The distance between the double lines hides the password for rising and falling
The golden cross and death cross are just appearances, the key is to look at the "distance" between the DIF and DEA lines:
The interval continues to widen (for example, DIF is increasingly higher than DEA) = the trend is accelerating (like in 2020 after BTC broke through $10,000, the gap between the double lines was 3 times larger than usual, and the main uptrend started from there)
The interval begins to narrow (the double lines slowly approach) = the trend is weakening (when BTC rushed to $69,000 in 2021, although the price was a new high, the gap between the double lines was half the size of the previous high, which was a harbinger of a sharp drop)
Now when I look at the market, the first thing I look at is the distance between the double lines, which is more reliable than any analyst's shouting orders.
2. The Breathing Rhythm of the Energy Column: Top Divergence is the Market's "Life-Saving Benefactor"
The color and length of the energy column are like the market is breathing:
The red column shortens but the price is still making new highs = top divergence (when ETH rushed to $4000 in 2024, the red column was two-thirds shorter than the previous high, and I cleared half of my position that day, avoiding the subsequent 30% plunge)
The green column magnifies but the price no longer makes new lows = bottom divergence (when SOL fell to $8 in 2023, the green column was twice as thick as the previous low, but the price did not fall through, this is funds secretly taking over the goods, and later it did rebound to $40)
Remember: Divergence does not mean an immediate reversal, but at least it shows that "the current trend is about to hold on", at this time it is always better to reduce the position than to be on duty.
3. Zero-axis watershed: The lifeline of the bull market and bear market
The zero axis is like the "sea level" of the market, and the gameplay is completely different whether the DIF line is above or below the zero axis:
DIF line crossing above the zero axis = bulls gain a firm foothold (when BTC broke through $30,000 in October 2023, the DIF line had just crossed the zero axis, and I immediately increased my position from 30% to 50%, eating the entire round of rise)
DIF line breaking below the zero axis = bears take the initiative (after the LUNA crash in May 2022, the DIF line fell below the zero axis, and I cleared my position and rested for 3 months, avoiding the subsequent 60% drop)
I have an iron rule: when the DIF line is below the zero axis, the position must never exceed 20%, and no matter how tempting the opportunity is, I will not be greedy.
4. Three-cycle resonance: The "nuclear weapon" to improve the winning rate
Single-cycle signals are easy to cheat, but the winning rate will soar if signals appear in three cycles at the same time:
Daily MACD golden cross + weekly DIF above the zero axis + 4-hour energy column magnification = high-probability long opportunity (when BNB rose from $200 to $600 in 2024, all three cycles met the standard at the same time, and I made 3 times the profit using "batch increase")
Daily death cross + weekly DIF below the zero axis + 4-hour green column magnification = short signal (before the altcoin crash in 2021, this combination appeared 5 times, and each time it could avoid a drop of more than 10%)
It's like three doctors saying "You should take medicine" at the same time, you can't just not believe it, right?
5. Volume verification: The "demon mirror" to filter fake signals
No matter how beautiful the MACD signal is, it's useless without the cooperation of trading volume:
When the golden cross appears, the trading volume should be 30% higher than the average volume of the previous 5 days (when ETH broke through $2000 in 2023, the trading volume suddenly increased by 50%, with the golden cross, this is a real breakthrough)
When the death cross appears, the increased trading volume is often "panic selling" (when BTC fell below $40,000 in 2022, the trading volume was twice as high as usual, don't buy the bottom of this kind of death cross)
I have suffered too much from "fake signals". Now, if the trading volume doesn't meet the standard, I ignore even the best signals.
III. Practical Battle of Reversal: The Key Four Steps from 200,000 to 40 Million
2019: 200,000 → 1 million (seize the first bite of meat after the bear market)
When BTC fell to $3,000, the weekly MACD showed a bottom divergence (new price low, MACD no new low), and the daily line had continuous 3 days of increasing volume of positive lines. I entered the market at a pace of "first position of 50,000, add 20,000 for every 5% increase", and when it reached 14,000 US dollars, the weekly line showed a top divergence, and I decisively cleared the position. This operation made me understand: In the bear market rebound, dare to buy; in the early bull market pullback, dare to hold.
2020: 1 million → 5 million (precise timing of the DeFi bull market)
When ETH broke through $200, the 4-hour MACD double line stood firmly on the zero axis, and the energy columns were thicker each time. I used the strategy of "300,000 base position + breakout increase", adding 50,000 each time it pulled back to the 20-day line, without chasing the highs. This wave earned 4 million, and more importantly, I added my wife's name to the property certificate - trust is more important than making money.
2021: 5 million → 20 million (escaping the top is more important than buying the bottom)
When BTC rushed to $69,000, I found that the daily line had a top divergence + the energy column was only 30% of the previous high, and I started to reduce my position a week in advance, reducing 20% every week. When the market was still shouting "$100,000 is not a dream", I had already cleared 80% of my position. Later, BTC fell to $29,000, and the 20 million in my account remained untouched - at this time I understood that the one who knows how to sell is the master.
2022-2024: 20 million → 40 million (use discipline to fight against volatility)
In the past two years of bear market volatility, I have relied on "three-cycle resonance + volume verification" to make waves, and every time the profit reaches 30%, I withdraw 10% of the principal. Although I didn't catch those skyrocketing altcoins, my account has grown steadily like climbing stairs. Now my wife will take the initiative to ask "How is the MACD today", and the child also knows "Don't disturb Dad when he is looking at the lines" - it turns out that if the transaction is done well, it can repair family relationships.
IV. Three life-saving iron rules: A philosophy of survival that is more important than technology
1. Stop loss is like breathing, it must be done every day
Daily MACD death cross + breaking below the 20-day moving average = unconditional stop loss (when SOL broke below $100 in 2023, I stopped the loss according to this rule, losing only 5%, avoiding the subsequent 40% drop)
A single loss must never exceed 3% of the principal (5 million principal, a maximum loss of 150,000 each time, even if you are wrong 10 times in a row, there are still 3.5 million to turn around)
I set the stop-loss line as the exchange's default conditional order, and the position is automatically closed when the time comes, and I never rely on "willpower" to carry the order.
2. Profit Harvesting Clock: Make the earned money truly belong to you
When the profit reaches 30%, withdraw the principal first (for example, if 100,000 principal earns 30,000, withdraw 100,000 and play with 30,000 profit)
If a top divergence signal appears on the weekly line, immediately reduce the position by 50% (when ETH rose to $3000 in 2024, I reduced my position according to this rule. Although I earned 10% less, I protected most of the profit during the subsequent pullback)
Remember: The numbers in the account don't count as money, only the ones transferred to the bank card do.
3. Absolute forbidden zone: These pitfalls can lead to zeroing out once encountered
Don't touch coins with a market value ranking outside of 50 (I bought an altcoin with a ranking of more than 100 in 2019, the project party ran away, and I lost everything)
Do not trade 24 hours before and after the Fed's interest rate meeting (interest rate changes will trigger extreme market conditions, I made a hard order and lost 800,000 at one interest rate meeting in 2022)
Treat any "insider information" as water off a duck's back (the so-called "market maker insider", 99% is a trap to let you take over)
V. To You Who Are Still Losing Money: Three Suggestions That Change Destiny
Now go and print out the K-line charts of the last three losses, and review them using the MACD indicator:
You will find that 80% of the losses have violated the most basic signals (such as buying at the time of the death cross, and not selling at the time of the top divergence)
90% of liquidations occur when the energy column is abnormally shrinking (the market is already reminding you "the trend is about to change")
Starting today, do these three small things:
Reduce the leverage to less than 3 times (it is best to use spot, leverage is a tool for professional players, not a gambler's chip)
Only analyze 3 MACD signals every day (DIF line position, energy column change, volume cooperation), don't look at more
If the loss exceeds 5%, immediately turn off the computer and leave, even if the sky falls, don't operate (when emotions are out of control, any decision is wrong)
Remember this sentence: There are always opportunities in the crypto circle, but your principal is only once. I have proven in nine years that even if there is only 200,000 left, as long as you abide by the discipline and use the right methods, you can still climb out of the mud.
The four steps to turn around in 9 years hide the most simple logic: dare to buy the bottom divergence in the bear market, dare to hold the pullback in the early bull market, decisively escape the top when the top divergence occurs, and earn steadily in the volatile market by wave trading. More importantly, withdraw 10% of the principal every 30% profit, turning the "account number" into a "property certificate under the wife's name" - this is the ultimate meaning of trading: money is a tool, not a shackle.
If you are still struggling in losses, always cycling in "chasing highs and killing lows"; if you want to know how to accurately read the MACD double-line spacing, how to choose the specific cycles of three-cycle resonance, what is the quantitative standard for volume compliance; if you don't want to let the operation hurt the family again, and want to make MACD a "shield to protect the principal" - you might as well save this article to your mobile phone.
Next, I will disassemble the "practical template of MACD signals" (such as the specific K-line pattern of top divergence, the position-increasing rhythm near the zero axis), "case analysis of three-cycle resonance", and even "how to repair family relationships with MACD" (such as earning money and withdrawing money to give the family a sense of security).
Follow@趋势猎手老金 , tomorrow I will first talk about "how to read the 'breathing rhythm' of the MACD energy column", so that every step of your operation is on a rhythm that is "understandable and defensible". Remember: the way to survive in the crypto circle is never in "how awesome the technology is", but in "using indicators to control your hands and using discipline to protect your family".
$ETH
