Two months ago, Old Li shared a screenshot in the group: account balance 1,000 U, captioned 'Still down 110,000, I don't even dare to share cryptocurrency jokes on social media anymore.' At that time, he had just experienced the Nth liquidation, with his avatar appearing gray and worn, like someone who had been pressed down and rubbed against the market repeatedly.
No one expected that the screenshot he shared yesterday would drop everyone's jaws: there was 15,000 U in the account, just enough to recover 75,000. The group was in an uproar, some asked for inside information, others wanted to place bets, and Old Li only replied, 'I'm not smart; I just use the dumbest method — the three-stage position method, no pretending, no gambling, no all-in, but it's stable enough.'
Let's first talk about how he was 'educated' to be so obedient.
Old Li used to be a typical 'all-in freak'. Whenever he saw someone in the group shout '100-fold coins are starting', his eyes would light up and he would throw 80% of his capital into it; when the market slightly retraced, he felt 'if I hold on a bit longer, it will bounce back', only to end up from floating profits to being deeply trapped, ultimately facing liquidation and cutting losses.
On the day he lost 110,000, he squatted on the rooftop for half the night, with cigarette butts piling up like a small mountain. Later, he told me, 'At that time, there was only one thought in my mind — am I crazy? Knowing full well that heavy positions would lead to death, I still insisted on going all-in every time, like I was betting against the market.'
After reflecting on his pain, he deleted all the trading groups, replaced the K-line software on his phone with a calculator, and began trading like a monk: not chasing trends, not guessing the market, just focused on 'how to divide positions'.
Break down the 'three-stage position method': simple to the extreme, yet stable to a terrifying degree.
Old Li's method is simple enough to be written on a sticky note, but every step treads on the pain points of retail investors' losses:
1. Starting position: use 1/10 of the capital for 'exploration', and if wrong, it won't cause significant damage.
'In the past, opening a position was like jumping into a river with my eyes closed; now I first throw a small stone to test the water.' Old Li's starting position always only accounts for 10% of the principal — for 1,000 U of capital, the first trade is a maximum of 100 U.
He waits specifically for 'clear signal': for example, when BTC stabilizes above the 4-hour MA20 moving average, or when ETH breaks through previous highs with volume, only then does he use his starting position to experiment, setting a strict stop-loss (2%-3%). Even if he gets the direction wrong, he only risks losing 3 U from 100 U, which has almost no impact on the account.
'This step is not about making money, it's about verifying the direction.' Old Li said that he used to be afraid of 'missing opportunities', but now he understands: the market is not short of opportunities, but lacks 'the capital to wait for opportunities while staying alive.'
2. Confirmed position: increase the stake only when the direction is correct, and then amplify during the main upward trend.
Old Li only adds a 'confirmed position' when the starting position is profitable and the signal hasn't broken — usually 2-3 times more than the starting position; for example, if the starting position is 100 U, he would add 200-300 U for the confirmed position, raising the total position to 30%-40%.
He has a strict rule: he must wait for the 'second bullish candle confirmation' before increasing his position. For example, after BTC breaks, he doesn't move on the first bullish candle but waits for the second bullish candle to stabilize and the trading volume to increase before daring to add to his confirmed position. 'This way, I can avoid 80% of false breakouts; I used to suffer losses from 'chasing breakouts and getting buried.'
Last November, when BTC rose from 30,000 to 35,000, Old Li's 100 U starting position earned him 5 U, and after confirming with the second bullish candle, he added 300 U, making over 200 U directly, which was 10 times the profit of the starting position.
3. Aggressive position: use profits as capital to gamble, and when profitable, add positions without regret.
The most astonishing is his 'aggressive position' — only using profits earned earlier to increase positions, never touching the principal. For instance, if the starting position plus the confirmed position has already earned 200 U, he will take 100-150 U from the profits as 'aggressive position', raising total positions to a maximum of 50%.
'Capital is the father, profit is the child; use the child to gamble, lose and it won't hurt, win and it's a big profit.' During the recent surge from 2,000 to 2,500 in ETH, he accumulated 300 U in profits, used 200 U to increase his aggressive position, and ultimately earned 150 U from this part, effectively earning an additional 50% from profits.
More importantly, he set a 'break-even stop-loss' for his aggressive positions: once it retraced to the cost line, he would immediately close the aggressive position to preserve the principal and previous profits. 'This move can nip the risk of turning 'floating profits into floating losses' in the bud.'
Why can this simple method recover losses? It contains three counterintuitive truths.
1. Small positions for trial and error, turning 'gambling' into 'experimentation'.
The core of retail investors' large losses is 'too much risk in a single trade'. Old Li uses a 10% starting position for trial and error, essentially turning a 'life-or-death gamble' into a 'low-cost experiment': even if he makes 10 consecutive mistakes, he only loses 3% of the principal, always keeping the chance of a comeback. In contrast, in the past, if he made one wrong heavy position, he would lose 50%, making recovery extremely difficult.
2. Add positions in batches, letting profits and risks be 'asynchronous'.
Small starting position + stable confirmed position + aggressive position using profits, this combination allows 'small positions when risk is low, large positions when opportunities are high'. For example, if the direction is wrong, the maximum loss is 3%; if the direction is correct, the last two positions can amplify the gains, which provides the mathematical advantage of 'limited risk, unlimited profit.'
3. Use rules to lock in 'greed and fear'.
Old Li used to think that when the market went up, he should 'add more to earn more', and when it went down, he would panic and 'cut losses quickly'. Now, with the three-stage position method, he knows 'when to experiment without panic, when to add positions with confidence, and when to take profits and run', turning trading into 'executing rules at the push of a button', with emotions completely out of the picture.
Finally, Old Li's blood-and-tears summary: in the cryptocurrency market, what matters is not how fast you trade, but how long you survive.
Now Old Li has become the 'position management evangelist' in the group, and what he repeats the most every day is: 'If you don't want to die, don't go all in right at the start.' His account went from 1,000 U to 15,000 U, relying not on insider information, but on 'starting position for exploration, confirmed position for adding, and aggressive position for profit' — it may be simple, but every step is based on the idea of 'staying alive'.
In fact, the cryptocurrency market has never been a casino where 'whoever is bold makes money'; it is a training ground where 'whoever can control risk survives longer.' Those who gamble recklessly and chase highs and lows may seem to run fast, but they are prone to flipping over midway; whereas those like Old Li, who use simple methods to divide positions and control risk with rules, may appear slow but can steadily catch the opportunities when they arise, going further and further.
Remember: those who can smile and walk to the end are never 'all-in warriors', but 'slow-burn monsters'. Your position management is your survival probability — this is the most valuable lesson that Old Li learned from losing 110,000.
In cryptocurrency operations, technical skills reign supreme. Focus on refining your operational system, from order placement skills to trend analysis, as details hide opportunities. Use technology as your foundation.